Bitcoin possibilities

After zooming out over the course of a few days I see a few very simple possibilities. I've removed a lot of indicators to try to see a wider perspective for both a longer term swing trade and a shorter term investment.

One: we have finished the %62 retrace of the parabolic rise and are bouncing around a consolidated price (good long term buy if you believe in the market fundamentals)
Two: parabolic price action will continue to retrace till around 78% and we will see the 5s.

Depending on where you draw the trendline, we are slightly above or below the natural price consolidation.

Even though we're in a bearish trend at the moment, I will layer in buys between here and 7800... if it becomes clear that we're headed lower, I'll hodl and buy more at the 5xxxs. I don't think we're going there, and our beloved/loathed Tom Lee has said "bottom is in for the year". Valuations of bitcoin are wildly disparate, so clearly we're buying what we think will happen...