Hidden bearish divergence

2018年4月18日

I posted this idea as a comment on my bullish Adam and Eve possibility, but I think this is deserving of its own idea. If Bitcoin cannot break $8,400 here we could see a breakdown to the 5K-6K levels soon on the daily chart.

Short entries should only be considered if we begin to head back towards $7,800. We will likely not survive a second retest of this level.

Support levels to watch will be the $7,500-7,600 area. A hold here could signal a sideways consolidation market and a longer-term trend reversal. These will be the important levels to watch for, as a result. Conservative traders should only consider entering short on a break of these support levels instead of the $7,8 levels.

As always, trade responsibly!

2018年4月18日

註釋

There's also the regular bearish divergence occurring on the 4H:

2018年4月21日

註釋

The potential for this idea is, of course, now invalid. My long entry was triggered at $8,350 instead.

It's always important to remember bearish possibilities, even if they are less likely than the bullish ones at the time. In this case the bearish possibility did not play out, but there will be a point in the future where thinking like a bear will save you quite a bit of money in this market, so never forget to view both sides and avoid that greedy feeling in the back of your mind when your alt-coin of choice goes 3x over 2 weeks.

While we still haven't truly confirmed a bull market, we're seeing some very promising price action.

The most notable thing, to me, is that market cap has increased to almost 400B, which is well over the previous high of 350B during the run to 12K earlier this year. This means that money is increasing in the market, but it is more spread amongst alt-coins. As the bull market becomes more confirmed by BTC it will be very important to diversify into alt-coins this year - 2018 will be the year of the alts. Pick your horses now, even if you haven't bought yet!