Bullish Divergence on daily and 4H timeframe. Swing oppurtunity
Long BTC for now.
Bitcoin shows the power is less on the previous dump.
We can see that the prices going down, while MACD-Histogram and Elder Force Index is tracing a shallower bottom.
Often times, as we see a divergence, we see a retest of that local bottom, see the blue arrow. It seems we are bouncing from the local bottom for the second time, and this could mean there is a higher probability of a bullish upmove.
The target is unclear, I have defined two target areas.
The first one is simply the slow EMA, and I will reevaluate when the price hits this target.
My target is never fixed. I will evaluate.
I do expect, when the power is sufficient, we will hit the +1 to +2 ATR line.
The tricky part is, as always, the dumps with BTC are strong, and this is therefore a high risk trade. A divergence after these long red candles is actually a bit tricky.
But hey, this is how BTC moves.
Note:
After my entry, at 7850, while writing this trade setup, BTC already started moving upwards. It's moving around 7920 now. If you want to follow this trade, it is better to wait and define an entry on a shorter timeframe, around 7870 to 7900.
Entry: 7870
Target 1: 8693
Target 2: 9070
Target 3: 9423
SL: 7192
R/R ratio for the expected target 2: 1:2
Bitcoin shows the power is less on the previous dump.
We can see that the prices going down, while MACD-Histogram and Elder Force Index is tracing a shallower bottom.
Often times, as we see a divergence, we see a retest of that local bottom, see the blue arrow. It seems we are bouncing from the local bottom for the second time, and this could mean there is a higher probability of a bullish upmove.
The target is unclear, I have defined two target areas.
The first one is simply the slow EMA, and I will reevaluate when the price hits this target.
My target is never fixed. I will evaluate.
I do expect, when the power is sufficient, we will hit the +1 to +2 ATR line.
The tricky part is, as always, the dumps with BTC are strong, and this is therefore a high risk trade. A divergence after these long red candles is actually a bit tricky.
But hey, this is how BTC moves.
Note:
After my entry, at 7850, while writing this trade setup, BTC already started moving upwards. It's moving around 7920 now. If you want to follow this trade, it is better to wait and define an entry on a shorter timeframe, around 7870 to 7900.
Entry: 7870
Target 1: 8693
Target 2: 9070
Target 3: 9423
SL: 7192
R/R ratio for the expected target 2: 1:2
評論:
"The target on the 1D timeframe is not so likely to this" --> The target on the 1D timeframe is not so likely to be reachted,I need to see more confirmations during the coming 24 hours.
交易結束：目標達成:
Hi,
Target 1 was reached, for some profit taking.
I sold the rest today @ 8450, because there were some bearish divergences to be seen and I wanted to scalp a little today. Then there was this dump and by some luck I got out pretty good today. BTC is too unsure for me now and I think this was it for the trade. Things start to look bearish again, I think the divergence was not getting any further then the EMA. The rest of the plan is invalid now and the trade is closed.
Target 1 was reached, for some profit taking.
I sold the rest today @ 8450, because there were some bearish divergences to be seen and I wanted to scalp a little today. Then there was this dump and by some luck I got out pretty good today. BTC is too unsure for me now and I think this was it for the trade. Things start to look bearish again, I think the divergence was not getting any further then the EMA. The rest of the plan is invalid now and the trade is closed.
As I am longer term bearish on BTC, I need to be very cautious on this trade.
The target on the 1D timeframe is not so likely to this, as the weekly is still bearish. Declining EMA and declining MACD-H.
I defined an evaluation zone on the 4H timeframe, where I either take my profit when it looks weak, either permanently or as a swing trade.
Reentering later.
This Evaluation zone is between 8133 and 8280.
It is the shorter term target , based on +1 up to +2 ATR timeframe.
It all depends on how it develops. Force and Volume will show. This is a risky trade and I do not recommend to simply follow it, without knowing what you're doing.