BTC/USDT Technical Analysis, 2025-05-19 19:30 UTC

5月19日

BTC/USDT – 15-Min Decision Zone
📅 19 May 2025 | Binance Spot

📊 Context
BTC has broken out of a descending wedge but is now testing a major decision area. Price is sitting between high-volume support and resistance zones.

🔄 Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation
- Break and close above $105,200
- Watch for volume >2x average
- Possible move to $106,500 (weekly ATH close)

⚠️ Scenario 2 – Failed Breakout
- Rejection below $103,800
- Potential fall toward $102,000 (4H 200-MA + psych level)

🧭 Indicators on Chart:
- RSI > 50 but not overbought
- MACD flattening – watch for bullish flip
- ATR increased → volatility expanding
- Volume Profile shows POC near $104,200

No trade advice – purely observational setup. Chart shows both directional possibilities.

5月20日

交易結束：目標達成

Update to BTC/USDT – 15-Min Decision Zone

Reason Chosen on TradingView: 2. Close Target Reached

Detailed Update:

📅 20 May 2025 | Binance Spot

Update Context:
Our previous "Decision Zone" idea saw bullish continuation as anticipated in Scenario 1. BTC successfully broke and closed above $105,200 on May 20th at approximately 01:00 UTC, reaching our target of $106,500 and even pushing higher to $106,789. This confirms the initial bullish breakout from the descending wedge.

Price Action Since Last Update:
After hitting our target, BTC experienced a pullback to the $104,500 zone. This was a healthy correction after the initial strong move. However, the price has since shown renewed strength, pushing back towards the $106,000 zone as of 17:00 UTC on May 20th. This indicates continued bullish sentiment and a potential retest of the recent highs.

Analysis of Current Situation:
The initial target of $106,500 was reached, validating the "Bullish Continuation" scenario. The subsequent pullback and current rebound suggest that the $104,500 zone is acting as support. The fact that price is again pushing higher indicates that bulls are maintaining control, even after the initial profit-taking.

Next Steps/Observations:

Continued Strength: Watch for a sustained break and close above $106,500. If this occurs, it could open the door for further upward movement.
Support Confirmation: The $104,500 zone now appears to be a key support level. A decisive break below this would be a bearish signal and could invalidate the current bullish momentum.
Volume: Continue to monitor volume. Strong volume on upward moves and lower volume on pullbacks would be constructive for a sustained uptrend.
Outcome Summary:
The initial bullish target of $106,500 was successfully reached, confirming the "Bullish Continuation" scenario. The subsequent price action has shown resilience, with a bounce from the $104,500 support zone and a renewed push towards higher levels.