BTC in a dangerous triangle

If it breaks down under $18500 (which is more probable in accordance with TA that says more touches of triangle base = higher chance to break down) it could lead to $6200 for BTC.
BUT
breaking towards upside could lead the price to $32000, which is more probable in accordance with Bitcoin deflationary nature.
I bet on long squeeze to 12k$-14k$ and coming back to 20k levels.