Market Overview

WHAT HAPPENED?

Strong sales resumed last week after a short period of growth. This was provoked by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.

After testing and fixing the $105,800-$104,500 zone (accumulated volumes), strong volume deviations appeared, which should be perceived as protection on the part of the buyer.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN: OR NOT?

At the moment, an attempt is being made to position the volumes accumulated in the range of $105,600-$104,700 in the direction of growth. Strong support has already been formed in the area of $104,000-$102,900 (abnormal volumes).

When the four-hour candle closes above the $106,400 mark, it’ll be possible to additionally consider the zone of accumulated volumes for buys (if there is a reaction from it).

The main scenario is a long position with targets up to the nearest resistance. In case of easing of geopolitical tensions, there remains the possibility of updating the ATH.

Alternative scenario: correction to the support zone of $101,600-$100,000 (volume anomalies). With this development, a prolonged rebound is possible.

Sell Zones:

$109,000–$110,000 (accumulated volume)

Buy Zones:

$105,600–$104,700 (accumulated volume)
$104,000–$102,900 (volume anomalies)
$101,600–$100,000 (significant volume anomalies)
$98,000–$97,200 (local support)
Level at $93,000
$91,500–$90,000 (strong buying imbalance)


IMPORTANT DATES

Macroeconomic developments this week:

• Tuesday, June 17, 03:00 (UTC) — publication of the Japanese interest rate decision;
• Tuesday, June 17, 12:30 (UTC) — publication of the core retail sales index for May in the United States, the volume of retail sales for May in the United States;
• Wednesday, June 18, 06:00 (UTC) — publication of the UK consumer price index compared to May last year;
• Wednesday, June 18, 9:00 (UTC) — publication of the consumer price index in the Eurozone compared to May last year;
• Wednesday, June 18, 12:30 (UTC) — publication of the number of initial applications for US unemployment benefits;
• Wednesday, June 18, 18:00 (UTC) — publication of FOMC economic forecasts, FOMC statement, US Federal Reserve interest rate decision;
• Wednesday, June 18, 18:30 (UTC) — US FOMC Press Conference;
• Thursday, June 19, 7:30 (UTC) — publication of the Q2 interest rate decision in Switzerland;
• Thursday, June 19, 8:00 (UTC) — press conference of the National Bank of Switzerland;
• Thursday, June 19, 11:00 (UTC) — publication of the June interest rate decision in the UK;
• Thursday, June 19, 12:30 (UTC) — publication of the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States;
• Friday, June 20, 12:30 (UTC) — publication of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's index of manufacturing activity for June in the United States.


*This post is not a financial recommendation. Make decisions based on your own experience.

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