Back to Basics: Wyckoff on BTC / USDT Forecast

2019年10月31日

Pretty simple chart here on the weekly. Wykcoff's fundamental trading analysis was developed at the turn of the 20th century as banking institutions and the stock market began. He was in a similar situation than we are today with Bitcoin and the crypto markets - an investor witnessing massive amounts of wealth being created in an era of uncertainty. While his analysis, especially within the accumulation phase, would be much more nuanced than this chart shows, it does't really matter at this point because we've gone beyond the accumulation phase. Taking a macro perspective, expect BTC to breach 30k around April 2020. The growth since the beginning of 2019 shows a sustained exit from the accumulation phase and volatile growth. In my view, this this justifies my opinion that we are in a bull run. Whether BTC goes touches or goes lower than 7k in between is highly unlikely but not immaterial to consider, at least if you're a day trader.

Happy Halloween.