15/04/24 Weekly outlook
已更新
Last weeks high: $72799.81
Last weeks low: $66731.50
Midpoint: $60663.19
BTC HALVING WEEK!
A lot happened last week in the world of crypto, We saw our first prolonged sell off that led to BTC losing the 4H 200EMA support line, and reaching a weekly low of $60,600.
What caused this drop? In my opinion and it's easy to say in hindsight, it's been a long time coming with no clear pullback since the beginning of February. BTC's price has nearly doubled since then and with the rally exhausted a correction is healthy.
It's important to back up how a trader feels anecdotally with TA and data:
- In terms of TA and indicators, The 1D RSI has been on overbought for weeks and also provided a bearish divergence in mid march when we made a new ATH.
- The fear and greed index is a great tool to use as confluence with other technical indicators, used in conjunction with RSI for example we can tell if BTC has anymore room to grow during this rally or we need a pullback to refuel. In this case, the fear and greed index has been above 70 since the beginning of February, peaking at 90 which historically shows a local top.
FA and Geo-Political influences:
- The Halving takes place this week, in the past we do usually get a sell off pre-halving, 20-30% drop's are also common during bullruns so this isn't too much of a surprise.
- Geo-political escalations can cause uncertainty in the market, The COVID crash comes to mind where we have a capitulation event, I don't see this pullback as anything near the COVID crash severity, however, with conflict growing in the Middle-East it is possible risk-on assets such as BTC can suffer as investors become cautious and defensive.
For this week I will be keeping a close eye on BTC reclaiming 4H 200EMA, if that is possible I believe the alt market can begin to recover, until then I do think the market will still be cautious. Flip the MIDPOINT and make it support then we're risk on, rejects and we're still playing it safe.
Last weeks low: $66731.50
Midpoint: $60663.19
BTC HALVING WEEK!
A lot happened last week in the world of crypto, We saw our first prolonged sell off that led to BTC losing the 4H 200EMA support line, and reaching a weekly low of $60,600.
What caused this drop? In my opinion and it's easy to say in hindsight, it's been a long time coming with no clear pullback since the beginning of February. BTC's price has nearly doubled since then and with the rally exhausted a correction is healthy.
It's important to back up how a trader feels anecdotally with TA and data:
- In terms of TA and indicators, The 1D RSI has been on overbought for weeks and also provided a bearish divergence in mid march when we made a new ATH.
- The fear and greed index is a great tool to use as confluence with other technical indicators, used in conjunction with RSI for example we can tell if BTC has anymore room to grow during this rally or we need a pullback to refuel. In this case, the fear and greed index has been above 70 since the beginning of February, peaking at 90 which historically shows a local top.
FA and Geo-Political influences:
- The Halving takes place this week, in the past we do usually get a sell off pre-halving, 20-30% drop's are also common during bullruns so this isn't too much of a surprise.
- Geo-political escalations can cause uncertainty in the market, The COVID crash comes to mind where we have a capitulation event, I don't see this pullback as anything near the COVID crash severity, however, with conflict growing in the Middle-East it is possible risk-on assets such as BTC can suffer as investors become cautious and defensive.
For this week I will be keeping a close eye on BTC reclaiming 4H 200EMA, if that is possible I believe the alt market can begin to recover, until then I do think the market will still be cautious. Flip the MIDPOINT and make it support then we're risk on, rejects and we're still playing it safe.
註釋
I forgot to mention that Hong Kong approves a BTC and ETH Spot ETF increasing demand and providing more access to the Asian market, another source of inflows while supply drops.註釋
Broken below the previous weeks low. On the 4H there is a clear bullish divergence being printed, however anything below $59,300 and we have a break in structure on the 4H.
Hard to tell what is going to happen for now. The HALVING and a HONG KONG ETF on the way gives light at the end of the tunnel. Survival for now is key to get the benefits later.
註釋
reclaimed the previous weeks low and a first test of new support, needs a good reaction from here.
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