To approach this situation cautiously, a positive sign of momentum would be a weekly close above $44,100. Alternatively, a more assertive stance requires a daily close above $43,900, indicating strength in the short-term trend.
Traders focusing on technical pullbacks to support levels should consider $37,000 as the earliest significant pullback level on the daily chart. However, this may be deemed an aggressive entry point.
Beyond technical analysis, a pivotal factor is the imminent decision on the spot ETF, expected in early January. This event has the potential to significantly influence market dynamics, and we anticipate it to be a "sell-the-news" occurrence that bottoms shortly before a surge towards the halving.
Prudent trading strategies involve either maintaining a long position from a lower entry point while anticipating volatility around the ETF announcement or adopting a wait-and-see approach until the aftermath of the ETF decision becomes clear.
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