2025.05.25 Bitcoin Wave Count Extension (Refer to previous idea)

5月25日

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Please refer to the current Bitcoin wave count to better understand this analysis.

(Click the image to go to the idea.)

Typically, before breaking a major high, the market tends to absorb liquidity in the lower range by triggering stop-loss orders. The current movement appears to follow this classic corrective pattern.

In this zone, the Alt Bat harmonic pattern has been confirmed, and various technical indicators such as RSI and wave count are all supporting an upward move.

As I have consistently emphasized, I expect a strong bullish trend.

The short-term targets are as follows:
1st target: 107,761
2nd target: 108,082
3rd target: 108,398

5月25日

註釋

ALL TP HIT!!

5月31日

交易進行

Trade Review


After uploading the idea, the price rose to 110,600 USDT, resulting in a very satisfying profit.
This trade received a lot of questions from many people, so I would like to explain the Elliott Wave analysis that was used in this trade.
Since harmonic patterns can be applied using their predefined structures, I will omit the explanation for those and focus on the Elliott Wave.

Elliott Wave Explanation


As you can see in the link above, I counted this section from the perspective of the Elliott Wave.
At first glance, it may appear similar to a bearish head and shoulders pattern, but this is merely a superficial resemblance.
I want to emphasize that, structurally, this was actually a section where upward movement was valid based on wave theory.

Basis and Entry Strategy


If you look at the blue Fibonacci extension line in the chart above,
you can see that the length of Wave 5 reached 1.618 times that of Wave 1.
This is a very typical extension ratio in Elliott Wave theory and technically indicates a strong support zone.

This area also overlapped with the PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) in the harmonic pattern,
so a long position entry around 106,700 USDT was a scenario with a very favorable risk-to-reward ratio.

Although the price made one more low and fell to 106,600 USDT, there was no strong continuation to the downside.
Instead, an RSI divergence was confirmed, followed by a rebound, which marked the start of the upward trend.

Trade Conclusion
With strong conviction, I aggressively expanded my position in this area,
and as a result, this became a highly ideal case where a strategy based on technical analysis worked effectively.

I believe this trade clearly demonstrates the importance of combining multiple factors—
not just simple pattern recognition, but wave structure + PRZ + RSI divergence.