Maybe an early punt but NOT quite a SHORT set up YET

2023年10月29日

A short as high above $34k as possible i.e. +34.4 (stop above last high $35k, target above 31K for about 2:1 R/R, rolling the dice at 50/50 chance hit rate) may be worth it as an early punt that I see myself would do in 2017

However

1. Daily RSI is still in overbought (81.8 over 76.26), not yet showing divergence and can be overextended for as long as 20 days (reference on 11Jan23 to 30Jan23)
   
2. Daily MACD is way above signal line with no sight of crossing
   
3. Also a price retracement into the blue zone at 0.5 Fibanocci may be a stretch so R/R may not be that good.
   

Hence it’s not quite a short set up yet
Overall, it’s a level to watch, but I’m not taking any position

2023年11月6日

註釋

Would have been a stop-out punt. Price spiked at the result of positive "interpretation" Powell talk. Perhaps next time, stay flat around number

As noted, price can stay overextended for quite some time. Chart does not look good now for a short (to be updated in this week #3 newsletter