BTC looks to be setting a bull trap

BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
Let's start with the obvious. I've outlined the bull flag in orange. I wouldn't be surprised if this broke out a little higher until it hits strong resistance from the Fib and 50MA. The white one is trend based, the red is retracement to estimate a bottom should it drop below 6k. Key word: estimate. Not probably, likely, guaranteed, unlikely, impossible or precisely.

I've circled the area that it would likely trade within if it moves higher and is stopped by resistance. That would create an ascending wedge that is a bearish reversal indicator.

RSI is currently at 56 and hasn't moved above 62 since 1/6/18. On a positive note it didn't break below 30 earlier this month which I interpret as a positive sign that the bears are losing momentum.

If one is feeling positive about the bulls taking over the bullish reentry zone looks to be a high probability to reload.

A few X factors. The latest surge is highly suspect, particularly when looking at the shorts that were slaughtered as a result. Moreover, I'm extra cautious when alts surge across the board. It's textbook FOMO to drive prices higher before BTC drops. When it does anyone who sells takes a double loss. A loss on the BTC/alt pairing value and in the cash value of BTC . 20%, 40%, 50% ROIs in a few days are very likely to have pullbacks naturally. If BTC drops below the bullish re-entry zone it would be likely for all those alt gains to be wiped out from the selloff that would ensue. Lastly, volume is much lower compared to other bull flags and without strong volume it's not going to continue the pattern.
交易進行: This latest bump set up an ascending wedge perfectly on the 4 hour as expected.
thank you, very clear and precise
+1 回覆
From a long term perspective bulls are looking now at a replay of 2013, with a new run akin to the end of that year. In reality there is no reason why this history should repeat so neatly.

Personally I think we are looking more generally at a 2014-type scenario with lower lows still to come. Failure of the broad double bottom will reset sentiment for a new wave of bears leading to an accelerating downtrend taking a couple of months at least to play out, probably from the beginning of May.

Essentially the opposite of what the bullish mainstream media is saying - new ATH this summer.
No one knows brother. We all have different opinions. You're saying bullish entry would be at around 6k. How many times does it have to test that mark? It has already tested that plenty of times. I might be wrong but I don't know what would happen after it hits 8500 or 8800. We will see how the market plays out brother. Thank you for the TA though.
I tend to agree. Good work
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