Messy Macro View
Here's something new: a bearish count from me for Bitshares. After countless wrong counts on the long side, the pattern unfolding seems to take a clear shape for me. But who knows, I might be wrong again! :-)
What I'm seeing: a market where everyone is watching everyone else. Everybody's trying to make a speculative buck (myself included) and waiting to jump on board as soon as the market shoots up. Of course the market doesn't shoot up, because everybody's just waiting and watching. A sort of passive chicken and egg story! Volume has been supporting this claim for a long time now (since past december), and king Bitcoin is showing the same situation.
Technically, one might say that we're still seeing an elastic bounce as aftershock of the big december peak. What happens when the energy of the aftershock dies out completely? A market without energy in it, with everybody waiting for a new impulse. That impulse, in my opinion, will probably only come when prices have seriously dipped (so, a capitulation phase) down to a point where even a blind person would find the dip interesting enough to buy in, because there is, in a sense, only upside to be explored. I'm talking about 20 RSI on the daily material.
And then we'll see people buying in, and a whole host of others starting to buy in at what they think is the end of a wave 2 (of an impulsive wave 1 on a higher trend). And so it begins! Crypto markets really are about mass psychology and self fulfilling prophecies.
So, my current view is we'll see some movement up, for the wave 4 of the last 5-wave leg down. And then one last, big dip into loooooow RSI levels on the daily, potentially down to 900 sats level. At that point I would say, BUY!
What I'm seeing: a market where everyone is watching everyone else. Everybody's trying to make a speculative buck (myself included) and waiting to jump on board as soon as the market shoots up. Of course the market doesn't shoot up, because everybody's just waiting and watching. A sort of passive chicken and egg story! Volume has been supporting this claim for a long time now (since past december), and king Bitcoin is showing the same situation.
Technically, one might say that we're still seeing an elastic bounce as aftershock of the big december peak. What happens when the energy of the aftershock dies out completely? A market without energy in it, with everybody waiting for a new impulse. That impulse, in my opinion, will probably only come when prices have seriously dipped (so, a capitulation phase) down to a point where even a blind person would find the dip interesting enough to buy in, because there is, in a sense, only upside to be explored. I'm talking about 20 RSI on the daily material.
And then we'll see people buying in, and a whole host of others starting to buy in at what they think is the end of a wave 2 (of an impulsive wave 1 on a higher trend). And so it begins! Crypto markets really are about mass psychology and self fulfilling prophecies.
So, my current view is we'll see some movement up, for the wave 4 of the last 5-wave leg down. And then one last, big dip into loooooow RSI levels on the daily, potentially down to 900 sats level. At that point I would say, BUY!
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