BUD - Hail the King of Beer
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Here on a daily chart, I have plotted the ratio of the dynamic share price of BUD compared
with TAP. The thesis is that TAP ( Coors / Molson) may have had a share price rise while
BUD dropped its own as a reaction to its adverse ad campaign which resulted in a social media
disaster. BUD is global with only 25% of its market in North America while TAP is more like
North America predominantly. The ad campaign and social media backlash is only North
America over time is impact will be nil.
The thesis is that BUD will recover and that astute contrarian investors and traders can profit
from the dynamic which in the greater and longer picture has been a dip for BUD representing
a buying opportunity. As can be seen on the chart, the DUD/TAP ratio is at the bottom and
outside of the boundary of the lower Bollinger Bands and now reentering the bands.
The ratio is also in the demand/support zone where it was last October. The action
of the ratio was a double top "M" pattern which has now played out . Finally, the AI predictive
algo of Luxalgo predicts a ratio rise between now and the end of the month as the ratio
heads to the midline of the Bollinger Bands. Overall, the analysis is that either BUD will rise
or TAP will drop or some combination. Overall, I conclude that BUD could easily rise from
this dip over the next ten calendar days. I will take a position in call options with 30- 45 DTE.
with TAP. The thesis is that TAP ( Coors / Molson) may have had a share price rise while
BUD dropped its own as a reaction to its adverse ad campaign which resulted in a social media
disaster. BUD is global with only 25% of its market in North America while TAP is more like
North America predominantly. The ad campaign and social media backlash is only North
America over time is impact will be nil.
The thesis is that BUD will recover and that astute contrarian investors and traders can profit
from the dynamic which in the greater and longer picture has been a dip for BUD representing
a buying opportunity. As can be seen on the chart, the DUD/TAP ratio is at the bottom and
outside of the boundary of the lower Bollinger Bands and now reentering the bands.
The ratio is also in the demand/support zone where it was last October. The action
of the ratio was a double top "M" pattern which has now played out . Finally, the AI predictive
algo of Luxalgo predicts a ratio rise between now and the end of the month as the ratio
heads to the midline of the Bollinger Bands. Overall, the analysis is that either BUD will rise
or TAP will drop or some combination. Overall, I conclude that BUD could easily rise from
this dip over the next ten calendar days. I will take a position in call options with 30- 45 DTE.
交易進行
The adverse ad campaign perhaps will be rewarding after all if it increases investorand trader interest and so share prices. Awareness is part of the strategy as these
mega-cap companies compete in the market for the flow of dollars , BUD certainly has increased awareness no one will argue with that. i will translate my awareness into ten call option contracts striking $ 55.00 with DTE of 7/21
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