看多

Marine Le Pen is ramping up the CAC 40. Now.

已更新

French Election: Investors are very scared about Marine Le Pen

But what did we learned form 2016?

Investors had been scared about the Brexit, Donald Trump and the Italian Consitutional Referendum. Now Investors are scared again. The populist French politician Marine Le Pen is making investors very nervous.

Quote": "Fears are beginning to show in the bond market, where investors are selling French government debt over concerns that the far right politician just might overcome the odds and win the presidential election." Source: money.cnn.com/2017/02/06/investing/france-marine-le-pen-investing/

Investors are scared because the polls might be wrong again and Marine Le Pen might win the election like Donald Trump did unexpectedly. Or like the Brexit Vote.

But what Investors underestimate is that Vladimir Putin east of Europe and Donald Trump in the west makes french and european voters more scared about Marine Le Pen or any far right wing party. What investors also underestimate is that Europeans are more open for a strong European Union than ever before.

So lets watch closely the polls about Emmanuel Macron. The market consenus is, that Marine Le Pen is going to win the first election and fail in the second one (best of two). But there is no consensus about the possibility that Marine Le Pen might fall short in the polls and might fall behind Emmanuelle Macron in the next days and weeks. Investors are not prepared for this. Investors are scared, as you could read in the link above. If ever Macron is taking the lead than all those investors betting against France and Europe again got caught on the wrong foot - once more.

So lets follow the polls and see if Emmanuel Macron might take the lead earlier than everyone (!) is expecting this.

註釋

Feb 09 2017: Le Pen 25.5 - 26%, Macron 22-23,5%.

Quote: The election is being held on April 23 and May 7.

An Elabe poll showed Le Pen coming first in the first round with 25.5-26 percent of the vote against 22-23.5 percent for Macron - figures roughly similar to a poll by Ifop Fiducial which gave figures of 26 percent for Le Pen and 21 percent for Macron. Both showed scandal-hit conservative candidate Francois Fillon trailing in third place on about 18 percent.
The Elabe poll showed Le Pen, who heads the anti-immigrant and anti-EU National Front, losing the run-off to Macron, an ex-banker, by 37 percent to 63 percent - close to similar readings of 36 percent and 64 percent produced by Ifop Fiducial. Source: reuters.com/article/us-france-election-poll-idUSKBN15N258?il=0

註釋

Feb 09 2017: Weekly Comic is showing Marine Le Pen as French President

Weekly Comic: Marine Le Pen looks to shake up French politics, threatening the future of the euro zone
Economy7 hours ago (Feb 09, 2017 05:00AM ET)

Investing.com - Political uncertainty continues to drive financial markets, with investors largely focused on French politics this week.

Recent opinion polls showed far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen winning the first round of France's presidential election on April 23, beating out centrist Emmanuel Macron and conservative Francois Fillon. Le Pen has vowed to pull France out of the euro zone and hold a vote on its membership in the European Union. Despite most polls indicating that Macron would beat her in the run-off vote on May 7, traders feared over the possibility of a Brexit or Trump-style shock result. Adding to the mood of uncertainty, elections will also be held in the Netherlands in March, Germany in September and possibly Italy, underscoring political risk in the world’s biggest single market. Source: investing.com/news/economy-news/weekly-comic:-marine-le-pen-looks-to-shake-up-french-politics,-threatening-the-future-of-the-euro-zone-458873

註釋

Feb 10 2016: Marine Le Pen is in favour for Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin also.

Expect that Le Pen falls short behind Emanuell Macron. Voters in Europe now more scared about Trump and Putin than Millions of refugees. Thisfore any Trump-Putin connections backfires Marine Le Pen.

Feb 11 2017: Quote, Donald Trump: "I don´t know anything about this."

vox.com/world/2017/2/10/14575456/michael-flynn-phone-call-russia-explained

Quote: The scandal over Mike Flynn's secret talks with the Russians, explained
Updated by Zack Beauchamp@zackbeauchampzack@vox.com Feb 10, 2017, 1:29pm EST

Donald Trump’s national security adviser, Michael Flynn, may be in a lot of trouble. Late Thursday night, the Washington Post reported that Flynn had called Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak on December 29, the same day that Obama had slapped new sanctions on Russia in retaliation for its hack of the US election. The conversation covered the sanctions, and, according to two officials, suggested that the Trump administration would be rolling back the sanctions in the future. That would mean Flynn had been actively trying to undermine Obama administration policy while not yet in office — a big, questionably legal no-no. Indeed, the FBI is currently investigating the content of the Flynn calls. The Trump administration repeatedly and publicly denied that Flynn had spoken to Kislyak about sanctions, even enlisting Vice President Mike Pence to back him up in the media. Flynn himself told the Post on Wednesday that he hadn’t talked about sanctions. But the Post spoke to nine former and current US officials with knowledge of the call, which was actually recorded by US intelligence agencies (as all such high-level calls to the Russian ambassador are). Subsequent reporting from other outlets backed the Post up.

On Thursday, Flynn, through his spokesperson, backed away from the denial. The spokesperson said Flynn “indicated that while he had no recollection of discussing sanctions, he couldn’t be certain that the topic never came up.”

All of which means that it’s very likely that Flynn lied about the content of his talks with the Russian ambassador. That leaves two big outstanding questions:

Did Flynn lie to Pence about sanctions, or did Pence knowingly lie to the American public?
Did Flynn lie to FBI investigators, too?

The answers could help determine whether Flynn keeps his job — and, potentially, whether he faces criminal charges.

註釋

FEB 13 2017 Trump discovers the limits of his power
edition.cnn.com/2017/02/11/opinions/trump-white-house-power-limits-zelizer-opinion/index.html?iid=ob_lockedrail_topeditorial

註釋

FEB 13 2017: Oversea investors still highly bearish on European Stockmarkets. Investors facing two risks at the same time:

1. To underestimate the far right wing movement. The EU might be broken up.

or

2. To miss strongly rising European Stockmarkets, if ever the far right political parties might fail in France and Netherlans to take over political power until May 2017.

Some more fact´s:

Quote: Investors have been cautious about investing in the continent given the Greek debt crisis that gripped markets in 2015 — again — and last June's surprise U.K. vote to leave the European Union. The months ahead bring major elections in France and Germany, which some worry could strengthen populist voices and even threaten the breakup of the EU. But some of the largest investment firms now say it's time to buy Europe, especially since U.S. stocks look expensive at all-time highs and emerging market stocks have already rebounded with a 9 percent jump so far this year. Source: cnbc.com/2017/02/13/why-investors-are-looking-at-european-stocks-again.html

註釋

FEB 15 2017: New polls showing a huge loss of voters for Europe far wing parties. Nederlands PVV (Wilders) and Germany's AfD lost one third of voters after Trumps inauguration on January 20th since today. New polls from France to come next days.

註釋

Comment: FEB 15 2017: Record winning streak not seen in a quarter century.
marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-on-brink-of-best-win-streak-in-a-quarter-century-2017-02-15?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

註釋

FEB 16 2017: Donald Trump backfires Europes far right wing parties:

Dutch PVV, Wilders anti Islam Party, lost almust 40% of Voters since Trumps inauguration on Jan. 20th. Germany´s AfD lost also up to 40% of voters.

Todays Dutch polls showing a dramatic loss for Wilders anti islam party PVV. Polls from January 20 showing a huge vitory for Wilders winning up to a total of 36 lawmakers in the elections. Todays polls showing only likely to win 20 seats in Parliament. A huge loss of allmost 40% of Voters in one month only.

註釋

FEB 16 2017: Donald Trump backfires on Netherlands far right wing party. Expect same for Marine Le Pen.

Quote: With his uncompromising language about immigration and Islam, Geert Wilders has been stirring up Dutch politics for several years now. But since the election campaign in the Netherlands formally began Wednesday, polls have shown that his popularity is on shaky ground. His far-right Freedom party (PVV) still holds an advantage over the ruling Conservative (VDD) party, but one that is narrowing.
Wendy Jansma, a 29 year-old healthcare student, was considering voting for Wilders. She likes that he has “the guts” to talk about problems, and is willing to put Dutch people ahead of newcomers. But the behaviour of newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump has caused her to reconsider. “I am afraid when I look at Trump – I don’t want to have someone like that in power here. That would be taking a big risk,” she told Vice News.
Quote: news.vice.com/story/dutch-politician-geert-wilders-kicks-off-election-campaign-with-anti-immigrant-message

註釋

FEB 17 2017: Europes Voters are getting more scared about Trump

Todays topic is yesterdays Trumps meeting with "the press". People getting scared about Donald Trump. Latest poll in Germany is showing, that 78% of all Germans now scared (!) about Trump. Same time far right parties losing massively voters in Europe. The latest opionion poll in the netherlands is showing a dramatic loss of Voters for Wilders. If ever this numbers migh be confirmed in the next days than Wilders lost 40% (!) of all voters sind Trumps inauguration. de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parlamentswahl_in_den_Niederlanden_2017

註釋

FEB 17 2017: Border Adjustment TAX. U-Turn likely
Merkel ally: If Trump imposes punitive tariffs, we'll likely do the same

For any border adjustment TAX Trump needs approval of congress and senate. At least two GOP Senators will vote against this: John McCain und Lindsey Graham. Only one Senator more voting against Trumps Border Tax means Donald Trump is becoming a lame duck as early as no US President bevore ever.

Quote: Merkel ally: If Trump imposes punitive tariffs, we'll likely do the same
Economy2 hours ago (Feb 17, 2017 05:40AM ET)
BERLIN (Reuters) - If U.S. President Donald Trump imposes punitive tariffs on goods from other countries, Europe will probably do the same, a senior ally of German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in a magazine interview.

Trump has pulled out of a multilateral trade agreement with Asia-Pacific nations, vowed to renegotiate the U.S. free-trade deal with Canada and Mexico and wants to protect U.S. industries from foreign competition by levying new tariffs on goods. In January, he warned the United States would impose a border tax of 35 percent on imported cars. Volker Kauder, the leader of Merkel's conservatives in parliament, told Focus magazine in an interview due to be published on Saturday that he did not want an upward race in terms of tariffs. But he added: "If Trump makes the first move, we'll probably have to make the next one. Europe must reserve the right to respond with the same methods." Kauder said he was very concerned about Trump's global economic policy: "We need to talk to Trump and his people about how isolationist policies neither help America nor us."
Source: investing.com/news/economy-news/merkel-ally:-if-trump-imposes-punitive-tariffs,-we'll-likely-do-the-same-460590

註釋

FEB 18 2017: Trump approval rating sets a new low with 38

Expect Donald Trump is losing more and more supporters. Same time the low approval rates explaining why Trumps tone since few days getting more and more aggressive. Expect another u-turn if Trump recognize that he will fail if he do not change this way of communication. Expect that one of his aids (Conway/Spicer/Bannon) gets "fired" next. This will cause another spike to the upside for stockmarkets.
Source: gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

註釋

FEB 18 2017 "The Anglo Saxon world does not fully understand the mechanics of French elections"

Quote: One French hedge fund manager said he was relaxed about the election outcome, with Ms Le Pen considered a long shot in scenarios that require an unexpected turn of events, such as support for Mr Macron crumbling.
“The only way for the Front National to gain power is to secure more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first round,” said Renaud Champion, head of credit at La Française GIS. “The Anglo Saxon world does not fully understand the mechanics of French elections.” Source: ft.com/content/0f1fdff6-f469-11e6-95ee-f14e55513608

註釋

Comment: Comment: FEB 18 2017: Trumps approval rates on record lows. What does this means (historically)?

Read more:
Quote: Disapproval
Trump’s Approval Ratings Are Down. How Much Does It Mean?
Source: nytimes.com/2017/02/17/upshot/trump-is-down-to-38-approval-how-much-does-it-mean.html?_r=0

註釋

FEB 18 2017: Washington PR offensive fails to quell Europe's anxiety over Trump

Quote:
Commodities16 minutes ago (Feb 18, 2017 04:31PM ET)

By Noah Barkin

MUNICH (Reuters) - One month into the unusual presidency of Donald Trump, his most senior cabinet members were deployed to Brussels, Bonn and Munich this week to reassure nervous Europeans that everything would be okay. ...
.... "Pence and Mattis and Tillerson can come here and talk about the importance of the transatlantic relationship and NATO - and that is all good," said Elmar Brok, head of the foreign affairs committee of the European Parliament and a party ally of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. "But we don't know what's coming on Twitter tomorrow morning," he said, referring to Trump's penchant for spilling out policy statements via social media. Source: investing.com/news/commodities-news/washington-pr-offensive-fails-to-quell-europe's-anxiety-over-trump-460798

註釋

FEB 18 2017: Maybe this is the reason why Donald Trump rallies today in Florida

Drama mounts on Capitol Hill over Trump and Russia ties, 2016 election interference

Here’s how Congress is handling Russia investigations
Leigh Ann Caldwell
2 Hours Ago

Drama is building on Capitol Hill over current and potential investigations into Russia's alleged interference in last year's election and the pre-inauguration contacts between President Donald Trump's national security adviser and Russia's ambassador. At the end of a week's worth of new revelations and a resignation, FBI Director James Comey held a closed-door meeting with the Senate Intelligence Committee Friday.
Source: cnbc.com/2017/02/18/heres-how-congress-is-handling-russia-investigations.html

註釋

JAN 19 2017: Trump backfires European far right wing parties: Germany´s AfD lost 50% of all likely voters within 4 month only.

Latest poll from today is showing Germany´s anti EU and anti Muslim Party AfD droped to 9% of likely voters in the September election. This is a huge loss of 50% of all likely voters. One day before Trumps inauguration opinon polls showing the AfD to win at least 16-18%.

註釋

JAN 20 2017: Investor´s Sentiment highly bearish

Investor´s Sentiment, Europe, Germany:

Today´s Handelsblatt.com survey is saying

1. Pro´s put buying at Germany´s Eurex is as high as before the U.S. election.
2. Retail Investors Sentiment is most negative sind 2015.
Source: handelsblatt.com/finanzen/anlagestrategie/trends/dax-umfrage-warum-kein-absturz-am-deutschen-aktienmarkt-bevorsteht/19395102-2.html

註釋

FEB 20 2017 Marine Le Pen's Front National headquarters raided by police

French police searched the headquarters of Marine Le Pen’s far-right Front National on Monday evening as part of an official investigation into “fake” jobs involving the misuse of European Union funds to pay for a bodyguard and an assistant in Paris. Brussels investigators claim Le Pen paid her bodyguard, Thierry Légier, more than €41,500 (£35,350) between October and December 2011, by falsely claiming he was an EU parliamentary assistant. She is also accused of paying nearly €298,000 between December 2010 and 2016 to her France-based assistant Catherine Griset.
To qualify as a parliamentary assistant, the person needs to be physically working in one of the European parliament’s three offices in Brussels, Strasbourg or Luxembourg and be resident near that workplace. The European anti-fraud office (Olaf) has insisted Le Pen, 48, a frontrunner in France’s presidential campaign, repay the money, a total of €340,000. She has refused and is currently having it deducted from her MEP’s salary. theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/20/marine-le-pen-front-national-headquarters-raided-by-police

註釋

FEB 20 2017 Bond Traders Are Placing Euro-Breakup Bets Again

Quote:
by Stephen Spratt
Hidden under the surface of European bond markets, traders are placing bets that will pay out if the risks in the euro zone severely escalate. Markets across the continent have started to price in the increased potential for anti-euro candidates to win elections in France and Italy. Recent positioning in German and Italian bonds are hedges against a blow-up in the risk of a breakup in the common currency, said traders in London and New York, who asked not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak publicly. Six-month German securities have rallied more than benchmark tenors this month and open interest in two-year note futures has surged, suggesting investors are building up long positions in assets that are the closest to cash in terms of safety. The yield spread between Italian low- and high-coupon bonds has widened as traders bet against the latter, which would fall much more if the country’s creditworthiness is called into question. Source: bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-20/euro-zone-political-risks-lead-to-subtle-hedges-in-bond-markets

註釋

FEB 21 2017 Border tax hits political reality, and only Trump can save it

John Harwood | @johnjharwood
6 Mins Ago
Quote: So, Sen. David Perdue of Georgia, a former retail executive, has pronounced border adjustment an economic threat. Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, home base of Wal-Mart, has vowed to fight it. John Cornyn of Texas, who worries about the effect on oil prices and serves as the Senate's second-ranking Republican, last week pronounced border adjustment "on life support." Those three Republicans alone — if they hold firm — could be enough to sink the idea in a Senate where Republicans control just 52 seats. Source: cnbc.com/2017/02/21/border-tax-hits-political-reality-and-only-trump-can-save-it.html

註釋

FEB 21 2017: Fears about LePen starting to show

Marine Le Pen could 'blow up' the European Union, and the fear's starting to show
cnbc.com/2017/02/17/marine-le-pen-could-blow-up-european-union-fear-in-bond-market.html

註釋

FEB 21 2017: Watch how strong the Mexican Peos is today: invst.ly/3bcph invst.ly/3bcpm

註釋

FEB 22 2017: Only one side can be right.

1. Markets:
Quote: Euro plummets to 6 week lows as Le Pen's presidential bid looms: SocGen
Investors appear to be increasingly nervous ahead of the scheduled elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany after failing to foresee the outcomes of the U.K.'s Brexit vote and U.S. President Donald Trump's victory. "So much uncertainty with 9 weeks to go until the first round of the (French) election means we will probably see nervousness persist, and undermine the Euro across the board," Societe Generale analysts concluded. Soure: cnbc.com/2017/02/22/euro-plummets-to-6-week-lows-as-le-pens-presidential-bid-looms-socgen.html

or:

2. Facts:
Germany´s far right wing and antie EU and anti Islam Party AfD dropped today to 8% of likely voters fro 18% last year. This is a huge loss of 60% of all likely voters since August 2016.
spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/afd-faellt-in-forsa-umfrage-auf-acht-prozent-a-1135756.html

Netherlands far right wing and anti EU, anti EURO and anti Islam Party PVV (Wlders) is loosing very fast ground now week by week and lost at least 25 - 40% of all likely voters. The PVV is now expected to win 16% of all votersonly to become probaly second stronges party only. This is the lowest numbers in more than two years. The Nederlands elections is held on March 15 2017.
n-tv.de/politik/Wilders-rauscht-ins-Umfragetief-article19714264.html

註釋

FEB 22 2017: Paris (CNN) Marine Le Pen's bid to become French president has become embroiled in a police investigation after her bodyguard and chief of staff were questioned and placed in custody Wednesday. Thierry Legier and Catherine Griset are alleged to have been paid for non-existent jobs at the European Parliament. edition.cnn.com/2017/02/22/europe/marine-le-pen-bodyguard-chief-of-staff-custody/index.html

註釋

FEB 22 2017: BREAKING: French centrist politician Bayrou says will not stand in presidential election; will back Macron
twitter.com/ReutersWorld/status/834427741042798592

註釋

FEB 23 2017: Prospect of a centrist alliance snaps 3-day losing streak for sovereign debt

Source:ft.com/content/d2ca3218-f9a9-11e6-bd4e-68d53499ed71

Quote: Selling pressure on French bonds ebbed on Thursday, pushing the yield on the 10-year bond back below 1 per cent, as the prospect of a centrist alliance in the country’s presidential election eased anxiety that far-right candidate Marine Le Pen will win.

註釋

FEB 23 2017: Wilders PVV loosing more ground. Dutch Prime Ministers Rutte´s PVV Party is taking the lead now.
Todays polls:
VVD: 28 Seats
PVV: 26 Seats
Source: de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parlamentswahl_in_den_Niederlanden_2017

註釋

FEB 23 Februar: The Washington Post counted 133 false or misleading claims in the first 35 days of Trump´s Presidency. US-Traders might underestimate that European Voters have a diffrent view on Trumps lies. Some of Trumps lies are about European Countries and had been answered allready on Trump twitter account by European Citizens. Trumps repeated lies backfires European far right parties. washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/trump-claims/

註釋

France Yields: Fear Indicator / French Election

註釋

FEB 25 2017: Fake Sweden expert on Fox News – has criminal convictions in US, no connection to Swedish security

Story telling like this backfires European far right parties. U.S. and U.K. Traders underestimate how this is going to affect all European Elections. European Voters turning away from far right parties wich all supporting Donald Trump.
Source: dn.se/nyheter/varlden/fake-sweden-expert-on-fox-news-has-criminal-convictions-in-us-no-connection-to-swedish-security/

註釋

FEB 25 2017: Tweets like todays from Donald Trump backfires more to European far right parties. Lets watch the upcomming polls in the next days and weeks closely.
twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/835325771858251776

註釋

FEB 27 2017: New France Poll: Marcron narrows gap to LePen for first round of France election to 1,5%.
Macron: 24,5%
LePen: 26%
Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

註釋

FEB 28 2017: France's Marine Le Pen may be losing election momentum — and investors like it

Quote: Marine Le Pen's chances of becoming France's next president may be slipping and investors are breathing a sigh of relief.
A poll released Tuesday by French firm Ifop showed the far-right candidate's lead over centrist Emmanuel Macron declining to just 1.5 percentage points. Another poll released by Opinionway showed Macron defeating Le Pen in the May 7 runoff election. France holds two rounds of voting in presidential contests. French bond prices rose after the polls, bringing their yields closer in line with more steady German yields. The French 10-year note yield declined to 0.888 percent, narrowing its spread with the 10-year German sovereign yield to around 0.68 percentage point. Bond yields move inversely to bond prices.
French 10-year yield in 2016
fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/charts/2017/02/1488299610_Untitled.png
Source: cnbc.com/2017/02/28/marine-le-pen-losing-momentum-in-france.html

註釋

FEB 28 2017 MEPs vote to lift Marine Le Pen's immunity for tweeting violent Isil images

Quote: A Group of European members of parliament on Tuesday voted "overwhelmingly" to lift the immunity of French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen for tweeting pictures of Isil violence.
Ms Le Pen, 48, an MEP, is under investigation in France for posting three graphic images of Isil executions on Twitter in 2015, including the beheading of the American journal. Source:telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/28/marine-le-pen-angers-french-police-threat-purge-civil-servants/

註釋

MAR 01 2017: CAC-40 completed Cup with Handle Pattern. Break Out today.

註釋

MAR 03 2017: CAC continues breakout supported by latest polls showing that Macron first time ever is taking the lead. First opinion poll showed friday morning Marine LePen second:

Marcron: 27%
LePEn 25,5%

Source:

註釋

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

註釋

Comment: MAR 04 2017: French shares climb as Marine Le Pen loses ground. Euro gains 1,09% income day only to highest levels in 2 weeks.
irishtimes.com/business/markets/french-shares-climb-as-marine-le-pen-loses-ground-1.2997149

註釋

MAR 05 2017 World News | Sun Mar 5, 2017 | 3:13pm GMT
Pressure mounts on France's Fillon as party heavyweights look to Juppe
Source: uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-election-idUKKBN16C0GM

註釋

MAR 05 2017 France's Fillon makes no promises to stay as party fights for electoral survival
investing.com/news/world-news/senior-french-centrist-urges-fillon-to-step-down-for-juppe-463855

註釋

MAR 6 2017 Investor fears over Europe could be overdone, but watch out for the US: Experts

Quote: Investors are concerned about the continued rise of populism could upset the current political and economic system, but Andrew Parry, head of equities at Hermes Investment Management, expects Europe to react against populism this year.
"There's the political risk that appears to be hanging over Europe. I think somewhat ironically, the more that people think that Trump is the embodiment through populism of the new economic model, the more you actually get a reaction against populism in Europe," he told CNBC's Street Signs. Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/06/europe-politics-investment-investing-populism-fear-us.html

註釋

Comment: MAR 09 2017:France's Macron seen on top in first round presidential vote: Poll
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/08/frances-macron-seen-on-top-in-first-round-presidential-vote-poll.html

註釋

MAR10 2017: 5 days before the Dutch Election Netherlands anti-Islam and anti EU Party PVV is falling behind.

Number of seats to win next wednesday:

VVD: 25
CDA: 22
PVV: 22 (Netherlands far right party, Geert Wilders, hould had won 38 in June 2016)
GL: 20
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017

註釋

MAR 21 2017: France ETF rises on heavy volume after first presidential debate

Published: Mar 21, 2017 10:59 a.m. ET
marketwatch.com/story/france-etf-rises-on-heavy-volume-after-first-presidential-debate-2017-03-21?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

註釋

March 23 201, French Election: After first TV-Debate Macron is taking the lead for the first round of election

Macron: 26%
LePen: 25%
Source:en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2017

註釋

MAR 24 2017: Trump's approval rating craters in poll — and his base is the culprit

Quote: President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 37% — a new low, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released Wednesday. The poll found the president to be losing crucial support among Republicans, men, and white voters. The survey of 1,056 voters from across the US found that Trump's approval among Republican voters dropped to 81%, from 91% of those surveyed in a similar Quinnipiac poll two weeks ago. His disapproval rating among that group jumped to 14% from 5%.
The poll showed those in Trump's most supportive demographics — male and white voters — to be increasingly unhappy with his performance. Forty-three percent of men approved of Trump — down from 49% in the most recent poll, while 44% of white voters approved, also down from 49%. "Most alarming for President Donald Trump, the demographic underpinnings of his support, Republicans, white voters, especially men and those without a college degree, are starting to have doubts," the assistant director of the poll, Tim Malloy, said in a statement. Source: uk.businessinsider.com/trumps-approval-rating-craters-in-poll-and-his-base-is-the-culprit-2017-3%3Fr%3DUS%26IR%3DT

註釋

MAR 23 2017: All major sentiment Indicators showing "fear" or "extreme fear" - even Markets just a few points under multi year highs or all time highs (DAX)

Before you read this news about todays market action (link below) keep your attention to the high level of putbuying at the CBOE: Total Intraday Put/Call Ratio 1,13. If ever there might be any higher number before the weekend the remind that usually high numbers like this are followed by a major spike to the upside some trading days later. Expect that a "fail" for Donald J. Trump might be nothing else than "sell the news" (for shortsellers). You need to invert the situation.

DAX Traders need to be aware that the EUWAX Sentiment Indicator today once more was extremely negative - means nothing else that putbuying was extremely high.
Quote: Wall St closes lower after Healthcare vote delay

investing.com/news/stock-market-news/wall-st-closes-lower,-after-healthcare-vote-delay-468437

註釋

Comment: MAR 28 2017: Poll shows Macron win in French election in shadow of 'Penelopegate'
investing.com/news/world-news/new-poll-shows-centrist-macron-beating-le-pen-to-win-french-election-469217

註釋

APR 01 2017: For Stockmarket Traders the Brexit is linked with "the rise of populism" in Europe. In most traders logic the Brexit should had caused a victory of Dutch far right party PVV (Gert Wilders) and should cause a victory of Marine LePen. The overall logic behind this story was to short European stockmarkets. This the rise of populism die not happened because voters in Europe turning away from populism, wich finally caused without any doubt the Brexit.

Two votes had been won by populists: The Brexit and the U.S. Election. Now lets have a look, how the latest approval rates are for Donald Trump:

MAR 30 2017: Majority of Americans think Trump's doing a poor job and the country is headed in the wrong direction: Poll
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/30/poll-trumps-approval-rating-is-falling.html
Trump's approval rating slips to another new low, much lower than resent presidents at this point in their terms
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/29/trumps-approval-rating-slips-to-another-new-low-much-lower-than-recent-presidents-at-this-point-in-their-terms.html

註釋

APR 03 2017: Donald Trump says he is ‘totally in favour’ of ‘wonderful’ EU
US President performs apparent U-turn after criticising bloc in previous interviews
independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-european-union-eu-us-president-totally-in-favour-wonderful-steve-bannon-mike-pence-a7596731.html

註釋

: APR 03 2017: German manufacturing growth reached an reached an almost six-year high in March, Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing showed on Monday. Manufacturing activity in France and Italy also rose, adding to signs of a pickup in momentum in the global economy.
Source: investing.com/news/stock-market-news/stocks-start-second-quarter-on-firm-note,-u.s.-policy-in-focus-as-trump-xi-talks-loom-470565

註釋

APR 04 2017: "Risk free trades against Europe on the rise of populism" vs. facts and figures

Quote: In recent polls, AfD (Germany´s far right party) has dropped dangerously close to the five percent threshold
Head of AfD, Frauke Petry (41), who has been under pressure within her Party, has now struck back – by indirectly threatening to step down
In recent polls, AfD has dropped dangerously close to the five percent threshold (currently seven percent, according to Allensbach). Without Petry, this might become even more of a tight squeeze. In the end, the party might fail to make it into parliament. Source: bild.de/politik/inland/frauke-petry/that-was-a-serious-challenge-51129132.bild.html

註釋

APR 04 2017: Michael Hasenstab bets against euro in populist hedge

Quote: Michael Hasenstab is betting against the euro, a striking position for an investment manager celebrated in Europe for throwing the weight of Franklin Templeton’s flagship bond fund behind Ireland and Hungary as they emerged from the debt crisis. Speaking to the Financial Times, his comments highlight the concerns of many international investors, amplified following a campaign pledge from Marine Le Pen, presidential candidate of the far right in France’s upcoming presidential election, to withdraw the country from Europe’s single currency.
Quote: ft.com/content/bba626fa-0994-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43

註釋

Comment: APR 05 2017 - French election debate: Macron marches on as Le Pen loses out
Source: edition.cnn.com/2017/04/05/europe/french-election-debate-le-pen-macron/index.html

註釋

APR 06 2017- Europe, Êconomy
Draghi says ECB's policy stance is still appropriate, too soon to reduce stimulus
Source: cnbc.com/2017/04/06/ecbs-draghi-says-monetary-policy-stance-is-still-appropriate.html

註釋

APR 08 2017: Marine LePen now lost 20% of likely voters for first round of election compared to June 2016
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

註釋

APR 20 2017: It´s now headline on bloomberg.com
French Election Shocker: Pollsters Baffled by Four-Way Race
Sorce: bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-19/french-election-shocker-pollsters-baffled-by-four-way-contest

交易結束：目標達成

All European Long Trades closed on profit taking. For additional information please click on the DAX chart and read further up dates.