Technical Analysis
The CAD/CHF pair remains firmly in a downtrend on the 1-hour chart, with price consistently making lower highs and lower lows, underscoring sustained selling pressure. The price is trading below both the 20-period and 50-period weighted moving averages, which have turned downward, signaling bearish momentum.
Price action recently tested the critical last market bottom near 0.5826, slightly dipping below before a minor rebound. This area acts as immediate support but a decisive break lower could open the way toward deeper retracements at the 127.2% (0.5821), 141.4% (0.5818), and 161.8% (0.5814) Fibonacci extensions, serving as potential targets for bears.
Overall, the technical picture favors continued bearish pressure toward the next Fibonacci support levels. However, a recovery above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.5833 and the short-term resistance near the 20-period WMA (around 0.5837) could trigger a corrective rebound toward 0.5845.
Fundamental Outlook
Key upcoming Canadian data, including the Ivey PMI readings on July 8 and the employment report scheduled for July 11, will be pivotal in shaping CAD sentiment. The Ivey PMI is expected to reflect ongoing softness in business activity, while employment figures will be closely monitored for signs of labor market resilience or deterioration.
Swiss economic data will be more limited but important releases such as the SECO Consumer Climate index on July 11 may provide additional insight into domestic demand and sentiment, impacting CHF positioning.
The CAD/CHF pair remains firmly in a downtrend on the 1-hour chart, with price consistently making lower highs and lower lows, underscoring sustained selling pressure. The price is trading below both the 20-period and 50-period weighted moving averages, which have turned downward, signaling bearish momentum.
Price action recently tested the critical last market bottom near 0.5826, slightly dipping below before a minor rebound. This area acts as immediate support but a decisive break lower could open the way toward deeper retracements at the 127.2% (0.5821), 141.4% (0.5818), and 161.8% (0.5814) Fibonacci extensions, serving as potential targets for bears.
Overall, the technical picture favors continued bearish pressure toward the next Fibonacci support levels. However, a recovery above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.5833 and the short-term resistance near the 20-period WMA (around 0.5837) could trigger a corrective rebound toward 0.5845.
Fundamental Outlook
Key upcoming Canadian data, including the Ivey PMI readings on July 8 and the employment report scheduled for July 11, will be pivotal in shaping CAD sentiment. The Ivey PMI is expected to reflect ongoing softness in business activity, while employment figures will be closely monitored for signs of labor market resilience or deterioration.
Swiss economic data will be more limited but important releases such as the SECO Consumer Climate index on July 11 may provide additional insight into domestic demand and sentiment, impacting CHF positioning.
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