Here's a detailed technical analysis using Elliott Wave Theory (EWT), Fibonacci, and volume/RSI interpretation for CARYSIL LTD (Weekly Chart):
🔍 Chart Analysis Summary:
1. Trend & Structure
A falling trendline was broken decisively with strong bullish candles and high volume—indicating a trend reversal.
The recent structure indicates a potential Wave 3 rally if we consider the Elliott Wave framework from the bottom near ₹431.
🌀 Elliott Wave Analysis (Probable Count)
Wave 1: Approx ₹431 → ₹730 (early 2024)
Wave 2: Correction from ₹730 → ₹520 (shallow, possibly zig-zag or flat)
Wave 3: Now ongoing, from ₹520 → ₹917+ (current high).
Wave 3 typically shows impulsive strength, supported here by volume and breakout behavior.
Wave 4 & 5: Yet to unfold; Wave 4 may likely consolidate near ₹820–850 before a final push toward ₹1000+ (Wave 5).
📐 Fibonacci Levels
Assuming:
Wave 1 = 431 to 730 = 299 pts
Projecting Wave 3 = 1.618 × Wave 1 = ~483 pts
From Wave 2 low (₹520) → Wave 3 potential target = ₹520 + ₹483 = ₹1003 (nearly tested)
Key Levels:
61.8% retracement of full fall (approx ₹1150 → ₹431) = ~₹900–920 zone (now reached)
Golden Ratio resistance in play
If this level is cleanly surpassed, next targets using Fib Extension:
1.618 of Wave 1 = ₹1000–1020
2.618 = ₹1150 (next major resistance)
📊 Volume & RSI Analysis
Volume Surge: Confirms institutional buying interest on breakout.
RSI: Near 69 (overbought zone), but typical of Wave 3. Not a sell signal yet, but keep watch for divergence.
RSI-based MA: Still lagging around 51—showing momentum has only recently shifted strong.
✅ Suggestions
Short-Term:
Some resistance near ₹920–940 likely due to previous swing highs and Fib zone.
Expect mild pullback/consolidation (possible Wave 4) before Wave 5 targets.
Medium-Term:
Hold with SL below ₹840 (previous breakout zone).
Watch for price-volume confirmation on any move beyond ₹950.
Fibonacci Retracement for Support:
Key pullback support zones: ₹850 / ₹800 (0.382 / 0.5 retracement of Wave 3).
📚 Learnings / Takeaways
Trendline + volume breakout with impulsive candles is a reliable Wave 3 signal.
Fibonacci extensions + RSI give confluence levels for Wave 3 exhaustion.
Don’t pre-empt Wave 5 without letting Wave 4 structure complete.
RSI divergence is often seen between Wave 3 and 5 (watch for this in the future).
🔍 Chart Analysis Summary:
1. Trend & Structure
A falling trendline was broken decisively with strong bullish candles and high volume—indicating a trend reversal.
The recent structure indicates a potential Wave 3 rally if we consider the Elliott Wave framework from the bottom near ₹431.
🌀 Elliott Wave Analysis (Probable Count)
Wave 1: Approx ₹431 → ₹730 (early 2024)
Wave 2: Correction from ₹730 → ₹520 (shallow, possibly zig-zag or flat)
Wave 3: Now ongoing, from ₹520 → ₹917+ (current high).
Wave 3 typically shows impulsive strength, supported here by volume and breakout behavior.
Wave 4 & 5: Yet to unfold; Wave 4 may likely consolidate near ₹820–850 before a final push toward ₹1000+ (Wave 5).
📐 Fibonacci Levels
Assuming:
Wave 1 = 431 to 730 = 299 pts
Projecting Wave 3 = 1.618 × Wave 1 = ~483 pts
From Wave 2 low (₹520) → Wave 3 potential target = ₹520 + ₹483 = ₹1003 (nearly tested)
Key Levels:
61.8% retracement of full fall (approx ₹1150 → ₹431) = ~₹900–920 zone (now reached)
Golden Ratio resistance in play
If this level is cleanly surpassed, next targets using Fib Extension:
1.618 of Wave 1 = ₹1000–1020
2.618 = ₹1150 (next major resistance)
📊 Volume & RSI Analysis
Volume Surge: Confirms institutional buying interest on breakout.
RSI: Near 69 (overbought zone), but typical of Wave 3. Not a sell signal yet, but keep watch for divergence.
RSI-based MA: Still lagging around 51—showing momentum has only recently shifted strong.
✅ Suggestions
Short-Term:
Some resistance near ₹920–940 likely due to previous swing highs and Fib zone.
Expect mild pullback/consolidation (possible Wave 4) before Wave 5 targets.
Medium-Term:
Hold with SL below ₹840 (previous breakout zone).
Watch for price-volume confirmation on any move beyond ₹950.
Fibonacci Retracement for Support:
Key pullback support zones: ₹850 / ₹800 (0.382 / 0.5 retracement of Wave 3).
📚 Learnings / Takeaways
Trendline + volume breakout with impulsive candles is a reliable Wave 3 signal.
Fibonacci extensions + RSI give confluence levels for Wave 3 exhaustion.
Don’t pre-empt Wave 5 without letting Wave 4 structure complete.
RSI divergence is often seen between Wave 3 and 5 (watch for this in the future).
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