CELR Potential Peak at $0.30 to $0.60

已更新

Recently, several people on TV have posted price targets calling for $1.00 CELR at the next peak. These analyses have used the log scale. This is an extension of those analyses.

The last three run-ups from low to high have seen growth ranging from 942% to 3250% (M = 1925%) over 68 to 154 days (M = 124 days). Using these minimum, maximum, and mean values, projections have been drawn on the chart:

Darkest green box represents the minimum price increase and duration
Medium green box represents the average price increase and duration
Lightest green box represents the maximum price increase and duration
Light orange box shows the range where price peak can occur
Darker orange box shows a range where the peak will most likely occur

Thus, a more conservative estimate puts the price peak at $0.30 to $0.60 somewhere between the end of Apr to the end of June.

註釋

The chart above shows a different perspective.

The small channels sloping down to the right are clones (i.e., same dimensions) and start at each previous peak. The arcs show the general shape of each run-up. The slanted arrows on top show the peak to pop out. The horizontal arrows on the bottom show the bottom to the peak. The length of the teal blue arrows are estimation based on the length of the red and purple arrows.

In the previous two run-ups, the price popped out of the channel before reaching the bottom of the channel. By charting the same channels and arcs (dashed lines), we can see where and when the price may peak next. Interestingly, if the price pops out of the channel by the end of May, it will also be pushing past the resistance just over $0.10.

The same chart with AlphaTrend is shown below.

However, as always, BTC dictates what happens with other cryptos and is in a tricky place now.

註釋

The downside in BTC coincided with a downside in many altcoins, including CELR. Additionally, there have been several bridge hacks, which may have negatively impacted sentiment in CELR and, subsequently, the price. Therefore, I've taken a new look at where CELR might go in the long term.

At the moment, CELR is at a pivotal point of tension. This is illustrated by the dark and light orange horizontal bands in the chart below. Once the price enters the dark orange range, it jostles around and eventually shoots up or dumps out. This range seems to be the demarcation point between the price staying above ~$0.026 or below ~$0.011.

What about trends? Most of the price action has occurred within the solid black lines -- the thickest of these seems to be significant, serving mainly as a support for much time. The dashed trendlines are supported by fewer data and serve as an idea. However, there is a risk that the price dumps out of the band and drops down into the light red band if BTC moves down significantly over the coming months. If this happens and BTC doesn't return to bull status until around Q1-Q2 2024, then it may take some time for CELR to come back and test the ATH and beyond. A new ATH of $0.30 - $0.60 is still on the cards.

What else could impact the price of CELR in the near future? As alluded to earlier, bridge hacks are one thing to keep an eye on. Hacks to other bridges, or even worse (if you own CELR), CELR itself could knock the price down or keep it down. And bridge hacks are pretty popular at the moment. For example, Chainanalysis recently reported that $2 billion had been stolen in cross-chain bridge hacks this year, with 13 hacks having occurred thus far -- these hacks comprise 69% of crypto funds stolen this year! Another thing some people think might impact CELR's price is a Coinbase listing. However, according to Decrypt, a Coinbase listing doesn't necessarily boost the price; if it does, it is temporary.

References

Chainanalysis (Aug 2022). Vulnerabilities in Cross-chain Bridge Protocols Emerge as Top Security Risk. Retrieved from blog.chainalysis.com/reports/cross-chain-bridge-hacks-2022/

Decrypt (June 2020). Why the 'Coinbase effect' on crypto is a temporary high. Retrived from decrypt.co/33311/coinbase-effect-crypto-temporary-high

註釋

It will be interesting to see how the price is impacted in the coming days/weeks by the recent DNS hijacking.

References

TokenInsight (18 Aug 2022). Celer: cBridge Frontend UI Suffered DNS Cache Poisoning Attack, Will Fully Compensate Affected Users. Retrieved from tokeninsight.com/en/news/celer-cbridge-frontend-ui-suffered-dns-cache-poisoning-attack-will-fully-compensate-affected-users?at_medium=RSS

註釋

CELR was listed on Coinbase without a fanfare.