CHFJPY Analysis – Bearish Rejection at Resistance

CHFJPY pair is showing signs of exhaustion near a strong resistance zone just under 176.00. With price action printing multiple rejections and forming lower highs, the setup favors a bearish bias heading into mid-Q2 2025. With Japanese yen sentiment strengthening despite market doubts and Swiss inflation data showing stagnation, the technical picture is aligning with macro fundamentals for a potential drop.

📊 Technical Outlook (Daily Chart)
Key Resistance Rejected:

Price failed to sustain above 175.75–176.15 area, a strong historical resistance.

Multiple rejection wicks highlight bearish pressure at this level.

Bearish Structure:

Rising wedge and flag breakdowns have preceded the current move.

The chart shows a projected bearish leg forming, with three potential targets marked by green support zones.

Support Levels to Watch:

172.61 – Minor structure and neckline support.

171.00 – Key horizontal zone; likely the first major test.

168.50–166.50 – Final bearish targets based on previous structure and price consolidation.

Bearish Trade Plan (as indicated):

Entry zone: ~174.80–175.50 (after a confirmed lower high or breakdown).

Stop: Above 176.15 (structure invalidation).

TP1: 172.60

TP2: 171.00

TP3: 168.50

Final TP: 166.50

🌐 Fundamental Drivers
Swiss Inflation (April 2025):

Swiss CPI was flat MoM and YoY (0.0%), reflecting weak price momentum

Core inflation remained modest (+0.1%), reducing pressure on SNB to tighten policy.

JPY Sentiment & Positioning:

COT data shows record net-long JPY positions, suggesting strong speculative interest

Analysts warn of overbought sentiment, but dovish BoJ policy continues to suppress JPY bears for now.

Macro Context:

Risk-off sentiment or yield curve steepening could favor the yen further.

CHF may weaken if Swiss data continues to underwhelm.

✅ Summary
CHFJPY has rejected strong resistance, and both technical and macro indicators suggest a pullback is likely. A break below 172.60 could open the door to deeper declines toward 168.50–166.50 in the coming weeks.