CL1!
It looks like Crude is heading to the $75-$80 area.
There are plenty of Macro forces underway that should push the price lower.
Macro
- Strong Dollar
- Rising Interest Rates
- Slowing Economies
- Government Intervention (Fist Bumps)
On the Technical Side:
- Price finally broke under the green major pitchfork's median line
- Weekly 9/20 MAs crossing bearish or Weekly Ichimoku Cloud: Impending conversion line / base line bearish cross
- Weekly MACD / RSI heading lower
- Weekly DMI, Bearish -DI cross
However, the daily chart/indicators do not look as bleak in the near term.
For this reason, I'm thinking that Crude might see some short lived upside before continuing lower.
Taking the Pitchfork set-up into consideration, I'm thinking there are two potential scenarios that will play out.
Two Scenarios
1 - Price retests the green fork's median line, before dropping. (Sky Blue Path)
OR
2 - Price heads higher to the U-MLH of the purple fork into Ichimoku resistance areas (base line or cloud) before continuing lower. (Yellow Path)
I'll be watching this chart closely, looking for a short entry. I'll update this idea when I get short.
評論:
UPDATE: I got short yesterday after the reversal on the retest of the green median line.