Severe cold weather in the US continues to disrupt shale oil production and refining activities. However the supply disruptions are no longer providing additional support to oil prices. Even without the boost from supply disruptions in North America, oil markets are by-and-large well supported, with a strong demand recovery outlook amid the receding pandemic and expectations of additional fiscal relief from the US, along with supply curtailments from OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia's additional 1 million b/d production curbs. However we cautioned that strong oil prices are heightening the risk of OPEC+ unwinding production cuts at a faster pace, which may reduce the supply tightness that is contributing to the supported market.
