$CL_F: Oil is flashing a bearish signal

2023年3月14日

Stagflation bros in shambles...Crude oil seems likely to collapse from here, which might be a tailwind for earnings over time. Inflation hysteria had reached insane levels, and perma bears and perma oil bull Canadian Fintwit types/value investors and other assorted flavors of losers of the 2009-2021 market had flocked to the theory that we would get stagflation and a period like the 70s. I know I've had my fair share of doubts regarding that but oil's chart is clear now, how can inflation go rampant with falling oil? Seems unlikely and probably a signal pointing to weaker demand than anticipated. I guess the easy market conditions for people shorting, bag holding oil or coal stocks, etc. are likely over here. Swings offered will be profitable but hard to capture if you're dogmatic about your market analysis and not flexible and paying attention to charts and ever changing conditions and news.
My take is over time we have a series of tailwinds for the economy (like oil and the big fall in the dollar from the top) that will contribute to re-rating of asset prices this year.
Best of luck!

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.

2023年3月15日

註釋

Signal fully confirmed now...I guess this is a red flag for markets across the board, sign of weak demand.