blackhorseshoe

WTI move already done?

NYMEX:CL1!   輕原油期貨
5
OPEC deal is lots of brouhaha, but details do not justify a sustainable move to $60 for three reasons: 1) latest production level for OPEC countries came at 34.19 bpd, cutting 1.2mn bpd as agreed would simply bring production back to August levels, when the price was at or below $50; 2) commitment of non-OPEC countries is unclear at best, with latest headlines reporting that only Russia and Oman seem on board and Russia itself aiming to cut production starting from April 2017 (with the deal expiring in June 2017...); 3) US shale will be very nimble to get back online. This deal was aimed mainly at shifting the front end of the curve into backwardation and offloading some inventories; no lasting effect should be expected, as Saudi Arabia's long-term goal of preserving mkt share has not changed at all. Is the price already forming a top here with a small H&S? Would wait for a clear break of the neckline, but I would not follow exuberance on the way up if the move will continue.
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