Coronavirus vs. the Economy: Covid19 Recovery High Hopes

2020年4月25日

Currently, the Coronavirus growth have resulted in one of the steepest negative correlations ever seen for a variety of different things. I comparatively looked at: the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, the VANGUARD MALVER/SHORT-TERM INFLATION, S&P Global Inc's stock price, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and an Oil Gas Index and seen steep downward spirals, as well as a positive correlation curve right afterwards. Even with the ADR being 1.68 as a decline ration, this is quite good. This means that people are starting to reinvest in the economy, and the steep downwards trend has likely been a result of panic selling. Behavioral psychology is a huge part of this. Even as Coronavirus is expected to hit the 3 million mark soon (and I have been analyzing the entire Covid19 history looking at growth rate), I can see within few month it hitting 5 million and so on. This is with it being curved. Herd immunity also can play a role in slowing everything down as places open back up. Again, don't take what I say seriously or at face value, but I think that the supply and demand curve for most of the economy's assets should stabilize, and expect everything to go back up. It is a slow recovery process, but not looking too detrimental. People could have been making decent gains during the Coronavirus period, but also huge losses. The best trading strategies do well in both a bullish and bearish market.