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COST - king of November seasonality

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COST is putting amazing November. It has ended 10 of the last 10 Novembers higher with an average return of 5.5%. And it has ended 18 of the last 20 higher, with one of the down years being the great recession.


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Observe the repeated behavior within the primary uptrend on the weekly timeframe. We have a primary uptrend channel with a series of secondary downtrends. Breakouts from the secondary downtrends take a proportional measured move up. A replay of this trend would land between $615-630.

On the daily timeframe todays price action takes a decisive move away from the downtrend and back into the uptrend. The blue range between $596-611 is a reasonable area to expect overhead resistance in the near term.

Any movement below $570 should signal caution and a close below $560 would invalidate near term continuation.

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