The Ancient Metric: Reflecting on Gold’s Financial Role

🟡The Ancient Metric: Reflecting on Gold’s Financial Role

Hard Money Lens: All asset ratios are expressed vs gold (XAUUSD) to:
• Strip out fiat currency distortion
• Reveal true purchasing power
• Treat gold as a timeless unit of account
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📈 1. S&P 500 / Gold (SPX/XAUUSD)
Ratio:
• Now: 1.88
• Jan 2025: 2.16
• Jul 2024: 2.26
• Jul 2018: 2.30
🔍 Interpretation:
• Down 18% from Jan 2025
• Down 18% over 7 years
• Not a crash nominally — but a stealth bear market in gold terms
✅ Conclusion:
Equities are quietly being devalued:
• Inflation is eroding fiat-based returns
• Excess valuations are being corrected
• Gold is quietly reclaiming its monetary role
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🏠 2. Housing / Gold (CSUSHPINSA/XAUUSD)
Ratio:
• Now: 0.10
• Jan 2025: 0.12
• Jul 2024: 0.13
• Jul 2018: 0.17
🔍 Interpretation:
• Down 41% in gold terms over 7 years
• Down 23% just since July 2024
• Indicates either:
• Gold rising faster than home prices
• Real estate weakening in true (inflation-adjusted) value
✅ Conclusion:
Housing is even more devalued than equities — potential deep value opportunity in hard-money terms.
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₿ 3. Bitcoin / Gold (BTC/XAUUSD)
Ratio:
• Now: 32
• Jan 2025: 37
• Jul 2024: 26
• Jul 2018: 6
🔍 Interpretation:
• Bitcoin is up >5× vs gold since 2018
• Peaked in Jan 2025, now -13%
• Still trading near historical highs
✅ Conclusion:
Bitcoin is the top performer, but:
• Showing signs of possible topping behavior
• Could be transitioning into a distribution phase

🧭 The Alpha View
🟤 1. We’re in a Secular Hard Money Shift
• Fiat-based assets are losing ground vs gold
• Gold is reasserting its role as a monetary base layer
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🟠 2. Bitcoin Has Front-Run the Cycle
• Outperformance = speculative phase
• But stalling and could signal short term distribution
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🟢 3. Real Estate: A Hard-Asset Value Play
• Crushed in gold terms = most undervalued major asset
• If inflation slows or rates fall, housing may outperform next
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🔁 4. Macro Rotation is Forming
• From high-risk growth (tech) → to hard-income/value (real estate, dividend stocks)
• Gold remains the anchor and arbiter of value
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🔮 Big Picture
We are witnessing a late-cycle monetary rotation:
• Fiat-based valuations are being repriced
• Gold is reasserting its dominance
• Housing market might be undervalued
• Bitcoin is still king, but risk/reward now elevated

The Defining Question: Is This the Cycle Where Bitcoin is Unchained?

Note: Market theorists frequently point to a 7-year cycle (7YC) as a natural rhythm in financial markets.

2018 Market Recap
• Rising geopolitical tensions
o U.S.-China trade war 1.0
• Tightening monetary policy
o Fed Rate hiked 4X’s & initiates QT
• Market volatility and equity corrections
o Major Crude Price Swings
• Emerging Markets Crisis
o Argentina & Turkey currency collapses
• The Crypto Winter
o BTC drops from nearly $20k to $4k

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