The Dax keeps following the script

TVC:DEU30   德國DAX指數
It is still possible the DAX move a bit lower but as far we are concerned the German index is ready to rally along the the Dow Jones. If needed there's strong support right below at the previous fourth wave low and the 38.2% retracement of the preceding 3rd wave @11870.

There's one thing that have changed in our Outlook. Even if we haven't changed the labeling, based on what happened last week in the Global scene, it would be wiser to see the upcoming rally as part of a larger correction not the start of a new rally. We can still rally to new high in a final wave before collapsing hard but the market psychology right now is more in a mood for a choppy counter trend rally that can take the shape of about everything in the book. Three waves at minimum that should hit the usual suspects as shown on the chart with my favorite at 12620.

On a different note, notice what the market did on January 23rd. It moved above a solid rising trendline that had been acting as resistance for a long time only to move back below it. That was a bearish sign. On a bull market, price would have move back to the line but without breaching it before taking off again. We also have a lower trend line that was acting as support and appears to become a resistance as the 4th wave could not move above it. Let's see what price action will do with line now.

Stay tuned. When markets get emotional patterns are much more clean cut.

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