$DBA breakout, potential near term reversal
LT Conviction: 5/5
ST Conviction: 2/5
Breakout confirmed for long-term upward movement. Risky short-term.
Explain:
Lots of agriculture requires fossil fuel as inputs (fertilizer), and with structural underinvestment in fossil fuel extraction, prices should remain elevated for the next few years.
This higher prices should trickle down into agriculture production costs.
Rising inflation should also increase (price) demand for agricultures.
However, short term looks overbought, and could drop in the next 1-3 months, following energy prices.
ST Conviction: 2/5
Breakout confirmed for long-term upward movement. Risky short-term.
Explain:
Lots of agriculture requires fossil fuel as inputs (fertilizer), and with structural underinvestment in fossil fuel extraction, prices should remain elevated for the next few years.
This higher prices should trickle down into agriculture production costs.
Rising inflation should also increase (price) demand for agricultures.
However, short term looks overbought, and could drop in the next 1-3 months, following energy prices.
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