Sum of every possible USTS Yield Spread

2022年9月16日

What happens if you take every possible US Treasury Yield spread and sum them all together?

You get the chart shown on top.

SPX is shown on the bottom for comparison.

Vertical lines show where it has crossed below zero in the past.

It just crossed below zero again.

2022年9月16日

註釋

Here are all the yield spreads:

DGS6MO - DGS3MO + DGS1 - DGS3MO + DGS1 - DGS6MO + DGS2 - DGS3MO + DGS2 - DGS6MO + DGS2 - DGS1 + DGS3 - DGS3MO + DGS3 - DGS6MO + DGS3 - DGS1 + DGS3 - DGS2 + DGS5 - DGS3MO + DGS5 - DGS6MO + DGS5 - DGS1 + DGS5 - DGS2 + DGS5 - DGS3 + DGS7 - DGS3MO + DGS7 - DGS6MO + DGS7 - DGS1 + DGS7 - DGS2 + DGS7 - DGS3 + DGS7 - DGS5 + DGS10 - DGS3MO + DGS10 - DGS6MO + DGS10 - DGS1 + DGS10 - DGS2 + DGS10 - DGS3 + DGS10 - DGS5 + DGS10 - DGS7 + DGS20 - DGS3MO + DGS20 - DGS6MO + DGS20 - DGS1 + DGS20 - DGS2 + DGS20 - DGS3 + DGS20 - DGS5 + DGS20 - DGS7 + DGS20 - DGS10 + DGS30 - DGS3MO + DGS30 - DGS6MO + DGS30 - DGS1 + DGS30 - DGS2 + DGS30 - DGS3 + DGS30 - DGS5 + DGS30 - DGS7 + DGS30 - DGS10 + DGS30 - DGS20

That's an algebraic expression which can be simplified:

7*DGS20 - 9*DGS3MO - 7*DGS6MO - 5*DGS1 - 3*DGS2 - DGS3 + DGS5 + 3*DGS7 + 5*DGS10 + 9*DGS30

You can feed that into TradingView to get the indicator chart.

2022年10月19日

註釋

Value is now at -3.51.

It's below the pre-covid level.

Now at 2007 levels.