$DIDI - The Demise of an IPO (Qualitative Judgement)

2021年7月26日

The current news and development suggest that DIDI will continue to go down.

1. The growth expectation is shattered by delisting the app.
2. The company has a lot of debt, just like any tech companies.
3. Earning growth will be slumpped until they figure out how to get past the hurddles.

THE MOST IMPORTANT
4. Management's dishonesty was well documented with the listing process.

My current valuation is, This will be a $1 stock soon. With a huge law suit to bear on the backbone, which they will definetely lose. (Clearly documented)
The CEO's dishonesty and importance of personal gain rather than the investor's interest (not adding value to the company) is a big big big turn off for me.

2 Things must be noticed or tracked.

Let the law suit settle, Unless you see a huge retained earnings that can compensate for the law suit.
Want to see the CEO change, or atleast change his attitude and increase his holding by 20% (He just got paid $3,000,000,000 from the IPO). 20% is a conservative number.

There are other great options for the money.

PPOSH will be something I have to evaluate net week.

IF YOU TAKE THE POSITION, YOU HAVE TO EVALUATE THE QUALITATIVE NATURE EVERY WEEK

2021年7月26日

註釋

Retained Earnings
-86,394.68 (2020) -75,735.53(2019) -65,812.47(2018)

Cash and Short Term Investments
56,769.65(2020) 54,151.00(2019) 52,731.91

Operating Expense > Revenue. (Typical for this type of business)

IF THERE IS GROWTH PROSPECTS, this can be bigger than UBER.

What a mess?

2021年7月30日

註釋

In Short (starter/negligible size) - Privatization Plan, an Underwriter should evaluate!!

This is true arbitraguer game right now. Treat this more like a M&A. There will be blood in the street. It could be anyone's.

I am assuming that this is another stunt pulled to elevate the stock price. And eventually the deal falls out. Why? read!

57B in CCE, (AP+Expense+STD = 17.2B, AR=7.2) Net = -10B, Liquidate LTI = 24B, Interest other expenses would grow after Liquidating = -1.4B [69.6B potential money to be relieved] with 6.1B shares float, 11.41 Price that can be paid to the shareholder.

This certainly calls for a Law Suit and push the company to bankrupcy. With no hopes of raising more money.

If they think they can turn around with minimum cash, no more funding. They can buy back at $8.3, To continue to operate.

If they think to shut down, additional 9-10B can be salvaged out of the PPE.
Goodwill and Intangibles have no value. 79.6B tobe paid to go pprivate. $13 share price.

The deal would fall out 80%. But shorting this at $13 would be so sweet.

This valuation and how the premarket reacted today can show you, how my valuation technique is efficient.

2022年1月2日

註釋

Value never fails.
Here is the profit. Close the trade. Realize the gain.