道瓊工業平均指數看空
DJI/DXY b4 the election
Continuation of the previous analysis:
Stopping when hitting the bottom is not a bad thing. The worst scenario is continuously pushing, resulting in a heavier fall without a bottom line. Short-term consolidation or a small decline may provide an opportunity for rotation and increased momentum. However, it still depends on the short-term trend.
Especially with the election at the end of the year, an endless upward trend is not realistic. Therefore, some volatility in the short term is necessary for a healthy market.
Possible scenarios before the election: ABC
Starting with the simplest, MODEL C. If, inadvertently, even the Last Line of Defense is breached, it's almost time to meet C, especially when even the orange line cannot be held. Of course, there are still some defensive lines in between, but the chances of holding them are slim.
This is the worst-case estimate and currently the least likely scenario. However, it's important to take precautions against expecting a rebound and stubbornly holding on, leading to unnecessary losses.
Model A/B:
The pullback point is the first respective box, then moving upward to touch the upper side, and then downward to touch the lower side. This needs time for verification. These are the operational paths I am preparing for before the election, with Model B being the scenario I consider more likely to occur.
In the short term, I won't enter the market. I cleared most of my positions last week. Unless next week consolidates with a certain volume release, I will at least wait until touching A before taking action. Additionally, it depends on whether DXY can continue to move downward.
延續上篇的解析
碰到底就停 不算壞事
最怕的是一直衝 反而跌的更重及沒有底線
短期盤整或小跌反而可能換手 增加動能
但是還是要看短線的走勢
尤其是大選在年底
要無止境的上攻是不現實的
所以短線上還是需要一定的波動才健康
選前可能走勢
ABC三種
先從簡單的來說 MODEL C
如果不小心連 Last Line of Defense
都破 那差不多要去見C
尤其是連橘線都守不住的時候
當然中間還是有些防線
但是能守住的機會不大
這是最差的預估 也是目前比較不可能會發生的事情
但是要先打個預防針
怕有預期反彈 而死抱不放 造成不必要的損失
Model A/B
回調點就是第一個各自方框
然後在向上去摸上方
再接下去摸下方
有待時間驗證
不過這些就是我未來到大選前預備的操作路徑
而ModelB會是我預期比較可能會發生的情況
短線內 我暫時不會入場
我在上禮拜已經出清了絕大部分倉位
除非下禮拜能盤整且有一定的量能釋出
不然最起碼我會等到觸碰到A才會有所動作
另外就是要看DXY是否能繼續向下
DXY:
The previous Route 1 is clearly not viable; there's a chance of Route 2. Currently, it seems like a short-term rebound, but there is pressure from the previous low, and these days it has shown weakness. Therefore, it seems likely to move towards 99, and it might even reach the previously estimated 97. If DXY continues to move downward next week, it can generally be inferred that there is a higher chance of the stock market continuing to rise.
DXY
之前的Route 1 明顯不是
看來有機會走Route 2
目前看短期回彈
不過看起來前低有壓力 且這幾天呈現弱勢
所以看來還是會邁向99
甚至有可能會去到之前預估的97
如果下禮拜DXY果真繼續向下
那大致上可以判斷股市能續漲的機會比較大
Stopping when hitting the bottom is not a bad thing. The worst scenario is continuously pushing, resulting in a heavier fall without a bottom line. Short-term consolidation or a small decline may provide an opportunity for rotation and increased momentum. However, it still depends on the short-term trend.
Especially with the election at the end of the year, an endless upward trend is not realistic. Therefore, some volatility in the short term is necessary for a healthy market.
Possible scenarios before the election: ABC
Starting with the simplest, MODEL C. If, inadvertently, even the Last Line of Defense is breached, it's almost time to meet C, especially when even the orange line cannot be held. Of course, there are still some defensive lines in between, but the chances of holding them are slim.
This is the worst-case estimate and currently the least likely scenario. However, it's important to take precautions against expecting a rebound and stubbornly holding on, leading to unnecessary losses.
Model A/B:
The pullback point is the first respective box, then moving upward to touch the upper side, and then downward to touch the lower side. This needs time for verification. These are the operational paths I am preparing for before the election, with Model B being the scenario I consider more likely to occur.
In the short term, I won't enter the market. I cleared most of my positions last week. Unless next week consolidates with a certain volume release, I will at least wait until touching A before taking action. Additionally, it depends on whether DXY can continue to move downward.
延續上篇的解析
碰到底就停 不算壞事
最怕的是一直衝 反而跌的更重及沒有底線
短期盤整或小跌反而可能換手 增加動能
但是還是要看短線的走勢
尤其是大選在年底
要無止境的上攻是不現實的
所以短線上還是需要一定的波動才健康
選前可能走勢
ABC三種
先從簡單的來說 MODEL C
如果不小心連 Last Line of Defense
都破 那差不多要去見C
尤其是連橘線都守不住的時候
當然中間還是有些防線
但是能守住的機會不大
這是最差的預估 也是目前比較不可能會發生的事情
但是要先打個預防針
怕有預期反彈 而死抱不放 造成不必要的損失
Model A/B
回調點就是第一個各自方框
然後在向上去摸上方
再接下去摸下方
有待時間驗證
不過這些就是我未來到大選前預備的操作路徑
而ModelB會是我預期比較可能會發生的情況
短線內 我暫時不會入場
我在上禮拜已經出清了絕大部分倉位
除非下禮拜能盤整且有一定的量能釋出
不然最起碼我會等到觸碰到A才會有所動作
另外就是要看DXY是否能繼續向下
DXY:
The previous Route 1 is clearly not viable; there's a chance of Route 2. Currently, it seems like a short-term rebound, but there is pressure from the previous low, and these days it has shown weakness. Therefore, it seems likely to move towards 99, and it might even reach the previously estimated 97. If DXY continues to move downward next week, it can generally be inferred that there is a higher chance of the stock market continuing to rise.
DXY
之前的Route 1 明顯不是
看來有機會走Route 2
目前看短期回彈
不過看起來前低有壓力 且這幾天呈現弱勢
所以看來還是會邁向99
甚至有可能會去到之前預估的97
如果下禮拜DXY果真繼續向下
那大致上可以判斷股市能續漲的機會比較大
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