5th weekly failure to close above 34k for DOW!

2023年2月16日

Its been 4 weeks, where DOW has failed to give a close above 34000 levels. With flux on inflation numbers coming in recently, it seems to be a clear mandate that FED is not turning dovish anytime soon. Moreover they have suggested that there might not be any rate cuts in the scene until end of 2024! This sends shivers up my spine and makes me wonder where are we headed towards. Jobless claim numbers, inflation data all point to a hawkish stance from FED. With 2Y-10Y yields being inverted for more than 270 days now, it will be astonishing to see what the future for equity markets hold. From what it appears, I can't rule down a deep crash coming in 2-3 months which would push the US economy into recession and that would give FED an ample amount of PROOF that the labor market is slowing down for real and the inflation numbers are well under their grip.

With such kind of situation looming I am extremely cautious towards any fresh investments in equities in Indian markets( I am an Indian markets trader and an investor). For the time being I have parked my capital in FIXED Income schemes present in market which include Fixed deposits and Gov T Bills. Waiting for the clouds to clear so that I can clearly understand where the market is headed towards.

But this is for certain that such major rejections are not a good time for the foreseeable future.

Would request everyone to be ultra cautious for any fresh new investments in the markets. With such high yields, IT company layoffs, labor market not loosing its steam, US fed's hawkish stance and the yield curve inversion, all seem to point out to a fact that equity markets, sooner or later will be witnessing a sharp correction, only question that needs to be answered now is WHEN ?
https://in.tradingview.com/chart/49xJ2TjU/