Dow Jones Cycles. I was wrong this whole time.

2024年2月24日

After looking over the log chart again, I have realized that each bull run has roughly 1200% of upside before a correction or Secular Bear Market.

We have had 3 completed bull cycles and 3 completed bear cycles so far and are currently in the middle of bull cycle 4.

If the 1200% bull run cycle is to continue, we are roughly 60% the way there.
That would take the Dow Jones up to about 85,000 area for the end of this bull cycle.

Then another bear cycle will commence up there at the channel top. We will worry about that when the time comes.

I believe I had been wrong this entire time.

If the market was to enter into a bear cycle now, then that means that this would be the first out of the last 4 that only went to 500% and not 1200%. That doesn't seem likely?

2024年2月24日

註釋

From where we are at today, we have roughly another 150% to go and about 50,000 points to go. Price just broke back above that channel line

2024年2月24日

註釋

All four moving averages fan out in a bull market and contract in a bear market.
21ema
50sma
100sma
200sma

Right now they are fanning out, which signals a bull cycle

2024年2月24日

註釋

I will be looking for a pullback into the rising 21ema monthly and a continuation of the bull trend. I will have to close my short position for a loss and admit I was totally wrong on the whole scenario.