Historical counts and target for CYCLE wave 5 as shown in the chart.
There is a high probability, that the DOW has finished this CYCLE wave 5 (red)!
During the last 30 years, the possible historical calculated target for this wave has always been e.g. 1,618 of wave 3 = 26428,07 (as an "Extension5"-pattern).
January 26th's CLOSE at 26616,71 (=1,621) has been the highest HIGH, before the market turned. Since then, DOW is in some sort of sidewards reaction, which will probably go on for a while...
This is, why I don't see any new highs for the very near future.
There is a high probability, that the DOW has finished this CYCLE wave 5 (red)!
During the last 30 years, the possible historical calculated target for this wave has always been e.g. 1,618 of wave 3 = 26428,07 (as an "Extension5"-pattern).
January 26th's CLOSE at 26616,71 (=1,621) has been the highest HIGH, before the market turned. Since then, DOW is in some sort of sidewards reaction, which will probably go on for a while...
This is, why I don't see any new highs for the very near future.
註釋
Since then, as predicted, there has not been much movement to the upside! Two similar Scenarios are possible for the near future:註釋
Scenario I: The peak of 01-02-2019 has a "SuperCycle" III (blue) count and right now, we are in a terminal "Cycle" wave E (brown), which also has a ABC corrective pattern. The TP for this Scenario would be the area of 20000 and below.註釋
Scenario II: The second peak of 04-10-2018 has the "SuperCycle" III (blue) count and right now, we are in a terminal "Cycle" wave C (brown), which also has a 12345 impulse pattern. The TP for this Scenario II would be the area of 19300 (conservative guess).註釋
Additinal Comment 1: Although the results of both Scenarios only differ in a range of 1000 to 2000 points, the difference would be either a ABC corrective pattern with its final tp in January 2020 OR a 12345 impulse pattern with its final tp in November 2019!註釋
For Scenario 1 a correct prediction is not possible yet!Scenario 2: Assuming, that Friday's low at 25710,9 has been the LOW of the first wave 1 of a final 12345-leg, shown in the chart below, the small wave 2 correction to the upside could stop at 266xx (0,618) before the fall continues...
註釋
Unchanged view of things. Next week will decide...註釋
Overview of possible targets for this wave 2 correction on 30min註釋
Standard coorection is 0,618 (26554)of the preceeding impuls wave 1. This is measured from this red wave 1. A 0,500 correction might also be possible (tp 26328).The other tps are measured from wave a (blue) 1,000 (26405) and 0,618 (26184) respectively.
NOTE: The standard correction of a ABC pattern is 0,618, But sometimes this wave stops at 0,500. This is , why I am exremely careful at the moment! Wish you have good trades! Cheers Wolf
註釋
"Extended V-Bottom"?註釋
SHS註釋
Vircles are Fib Targets. The double circeld one is the TP from pattern studies.註釋
*Circles註釋
The upper chart is unrealistic! One day later: On the actual chart below, I show tandard tps. Question is, if DOW will break the SL of the wedge wedge.
註釋
One week later註釋
Detailed view (5min scale)註釋
My update is overdue! After having expexted a move to the downside to 22500 overall, the market bounced. This has been a complete reversal, which strongly suggests, DJI is in a ABCDE correction!註釋
To complete this ABCDE pattern, this upper blue resistance line must be broken and the top resistance of the red wedge remains valid! Therefore. I expect a new ATH at roundabout 28000!註釋
Important note: Within an ABCDE-pattern, every wave consists of an ABC pattern! This is, why I expect a strong retracement as soon as DJI has reached the upper blue line (resistance) for a wave "b" (dark red). Once wave "b" is complete, there will be a last bounce to 28000 (wave c) in order to complete the whole ABCDE-pattern.註釋
Sorry, forget (dark red)! Wave "e" consist of an ABC-pattern. "a" of this wave stops at the blue line, "b" stops at 0,618 of wave "a" and teminal wave "c" bounces to 28000.註釋
Detailed on 1h:註釋
BREXIT trigger?
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