DOGEUSD looks overextended from big-rises. Sell or buy Dip
已更新
https://www.tradingview.com/x/hTUXal6I/
If you follow the stochastic's at all, esp. on higher timeframes, if you don't well that is fine, but I will share my tip, you never want to see K line (generally blue) crossing down on the D line if you are in a Long position, but an even further bearish possible move is when the K-line crosses down on the 80 Stochastic's level.
Now the fundamentals of the indicator are similar to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), anything above 80 and staying above 80 will become further overbought in a situation where there has been too much recent buying demand orders executed and as such sellers will usually move-in, but traditionally not until k Crosses-down on 80, getting to 75 will probably seal the deal short for sellers as this crossing of K needs to be a sustained crossing and needs to be moving down, this would occur much slower on a daily timeframe of course. Drop to lower timeframes and see what the oversold/overbought condition is for Stochastic's on lower TF's because the more confluence you have with the Daily the better.
It does not necessarily have to be on the Daily, but bigger timeframes carry bigger profits, generally, depending on SL position and risk/reward. Often, the first TF to meet the setup will be a lower TF, but profits can be made on a Crossing of the Daily chart, it would mean the trade is probably safer in higher TF, by that I mean trade goes your way in your intended direction, in this instance Short.
But here is the controversy of Stochastic X-ups (bullish above 20 level) & X-downs (bearish on a break of 80 lower), they are not very reliable when you are going against the trend.
For example, the DOGEUSD crypto has had a massive run lately since bitcoin reached around 75k, despite being at a great price, I believe, its price is overextended and considerably above the 200ema daily, so it becomes a sort of mean reversion situation where sellers form an idea from Stochastic's RSI Price action etc, that it's price needs to cool a bit as its overbought and too much current demand has driven the price too high, but here is the thing, shorting- Doge when its in a bullish uptrend with price above EMA's especially 200 will not be easy.
So this method works better when you are trying to move price (down or up) in the direction of the trend and the path of least resistance. One of the main reasons is because the RSI and Stochastic's give a mixed message when the trend is not your friend. This is because momentum is still to the upside long when above the 80 level on Stochastic's and RSI, momentum is still to the bearish downside when Stochastic's' is below the 20 level. This continued momentum can last a long time in these extended zones above 80 (bullish momentum) or below 20 (bearish momentum) but usually at some point a diminishing momentum occurs as the market forms an opinion that the instrument is overbought > 80 or oversold < 20.
So, the Daily chart shows how price is tipping over, right now a lot of other TFs showing bearishness as well on Stochastic's.
I hope this helps your understanding, a bit long but its a lengthy topic.
By the way, I don't think I will be selling DOGEUSD despite the reasons above, BTCUSD chart does not share this quality of bears moving in, at least not last time I checked a few hours ago.
If you follow the stochastic's at all, esp. on higher timeframes, if you don't well that is fine, but I will share my tip, you never want to see K line (generally blue) crossing down on the D line if you are in a Long position, but an even further bearish possible move is when the K-line crosses down on the 80 Stochastic's level.
Now the fundamentals of the indicator are similar to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), anything above 80 and staying above 80 will become further overbought in a situation where there has been too much recent buying demand orders executed and as such sellers will usually move-in, but traditionally not until k Crosses-down on 80, getting to 75 will probably seal the deal short for sellers as this crossing of K needs to be a sustained crossing and needs to be moving down, this would occur much slower on a daily timeframe of course. Drop to lower timeframes and see what the oversold/overbought condition is for Stochastic's on lower TF's because the more confluence you have with the Daily the better.
It does not necessarily have to be on the Daily, but bigger timeframes carry bigger profits, generally, depending on SL position and risk/reward. Often, the first TF to meet the setup will be a lower TF, but profits can be made on a Crossing of the Daily chart, it would mean the trade is probably safer in higher TF, by that I mean trade goes your way in your intended direction, in this instance Short.
But here is the controversy of Stochastic X-ups (bullish above 20 level) & X-downs (bearish on a break of 80 lower), they are not very reliable when you are going against the trend.
For example, the DOGEUSD crypto has had a massive run lately since bitcoin reached around 75k, despite being at a great price, I believe, its price is overextended and considerably above the 200ema daily, so it becomes a sort of mean reversion situation where sellers form an idea from Stochastic's RSI Price action etc, that it's price needs to cool a bit as its overbought and too much current demand has driven the price too high, but here is the thing, shorting- Doge when its in a bullish uptrend with price above EMA's especially 200 will not be easy.
So this method works better when you are trying to move price (down or up) in the direction of the trend and the path of least resistance. One of the main reasons is because the RSI and Stochastic's give a mixed message when the trend is not your friend. This is because momentum is still to the upside long when above the 80 level on Stochastic's and RSI, momentum is still to the bearish downside when Stochastic's' is below the 20 level. This continued momentum can last a long time in these extended zones above 80 (bullish momentum) or below 20 (bearish momentum) but usually at some point a diminishing momentum occurs as the market forms an opinion that the instrument is overbought > 80 or oversold < 20.
So, the Daily chart shows how price is tipping over, right now a lot of other TFs showing bearishness as well on Stochastic's.
I hope this helps your understanding, a bit long but its a lengthy topic.
By the way, I don't think I will be selling DOGEUSD despite the reasons above, BTCUSD chart does not share this quality of bears moving in, at least not last time I checked a few hours ago.
交易進行
Be aware guys, Doge, the great star its been lately, started selling again only hours ago from a Double-bottom on 1minute. Here is the chart. For this reason I took partial profits as I am very heavy in it, a couple of positions in Doge up 17k but unrealised, I think you gotta take some partial profits along the way or you quickly get hammered giving up unrealised Ps.
There is a prior triple bottom pattern on 15m timeframe Ifrom memory. Price might form support there around 0.3540. It's only a correction imo for cryptocurrency and it could be just a weekend sell-off and buyers step back in tomorrow.
註釋
Should read initially Double Top selling not bottom
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