DOTUSD, BTC movement shows confidence for DOT despite bears

2020年11月24日

It has been an interesting 48 hours as DOT has bounced off a hard $6 sell cap. Once those orders were filled, it crept to a few cents above $6, but did not take off. I think this may have been due to several reasons, but I think there were a few causal factors.

1) XRP is stealing the limelight with an outstanding curve
2) BTC (KRACKEN:XBTUSD) had shown little interest in continuing the climb
3) DOT is an immature coin with a highly speculative future

The fomo is hitting hard right now and we are seeing exaggerated bear traps across the board. I do not think those are a factor, YET. But we still need to be cognizant of the possibility of crowd mentality. Trading is some parts about math and most parts about psychology.

So, looking forward to the next 6 hours, I think there is a good case for DOTUSD to climb past the previous high and clear the $6 mark. If we have enough momentum to continue past $6, we will see a sharp climb within the previous channel.

Channel within a channel

We've developed a secondary channel that is much more narrow as indicated by the cyan line. IF we have the momentum to break out of this channel, we can analyze our Fib graphs to see possible sell points.

Don't let the bears win

As we saw the fall off and sudden knee-jerk sell off, it is not supported by the 1D and 4H charts. The orange dotted bottom trend line has been on my chart for a few days now and has not been altered. I think it's important not to adjust it so we can keep track of the grumpy bears and wait for the bull traders to boost us back up to a positive rate of climb (gear up!).

Upward Momentum

The upward momentum is still existent in BTC, so as long as the market cap keeps growing, we can expect the market price to continue as well. Stagnation and bear traps mean that a sharp rise can occur at any time to correct in positive direction as well.

Bummer Bear's Bottom Breakout Boo-hoo

If the bears win tonight and stagnate the price action outside of the channel, then everything is null and void. We will reform in a parallel channel. There is no indication or reason for price action to be stuck where its at other than manipulation or bad sentiment.

Good luck and much prosperity!

2020年11月24日

註釋

Looking more and more unlikely. The bears are in control now as the new money has stopped flowing in. Market cap is down 3%, but that does not mean we don't have potential for a long. I definitely don't think there is any reason to short at this time, despite the possibility of a brief sell off that might spur growth. Keep your eyes open and be ready to trade!