The week ahead on Dollar. A BIG ONE
Dollar started this week's trading on a softer tone following an indecisive yet more dovish than expected FED meeting last week. It all depends now on the PMI numbers this week, which is expected to come out as positive. However, any lower than expected numbers should be bearish on the Dollar as this should confirm doubts of slower recovery and economic growth resulting from Delta variant.
We also keep an eye on the NFP numbers at the end of this week, anything figure higher than 1 million new jobs should be considered highly bullish, and this would add extra pressure on Jerome Powell to at least specify a tapering roadmap at Jackson Hole's symposium. Any lower than 600k should again confirm slower growth and hence the sweet spot to me is in between 600k - 1kk that should give low to moderate volatility on the US dollar.
Technically, USD still has a bearish target at 91.50 points roughly which could slowly be reached during this week's trading as it is supported with a negative divergence with the breakout below the rising bearish wedge.
We also keep an eye on the NFP numbers at the end of this week, anything figure higher than 1 million new jobs should be considered highly bullish, and this would add extra pressure on Jerome Powell to at least specify a tapering roadmap at Jackson Hole's symposium. Any lower than 600k should again confirm slower growth and hence the sweet spot to me is in between 600k - 1kk that should give low to moderate volatility on the US dollar.
Technically, USD still has a bearish target at 91.50 points roughly which could slowly be reached during this week's trading as it is supported with a negative divergence with the breakout below the rising bearish wedge.
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