Hey, EOS, Is your big brother going to let you continue to play?

已更新

I am really, really new at this. Beware. The best way to learn and develop my analytical methodology is to document my successes and failures openly =)

EOS recently easily climbed to a new all time high. With the launch of the main net approaching and development churning out good news day after day, things are looking up. However, the EOS bears are starting to salivate at a potential 40% correction.

Currently, my methodology cannot accurately predict a long target in this scenario because I do not have past volume, support or resistance. I used a lot of discretion in the long target for this chart. If the long case plays out, there is a potential for a lot of continuation. This leg could go as high as $30 from my reading of others on TV. Upwards BTC movement could further accelerate EOS.

The long target drawn at $23.2341 is based on the upwards stride of the last two legs. Additional legs could extend the trend further. My opinion is that $24 or $25 is the next logical resistance level, but this is just a guess and not even intuition. I intend to research methods for approximating targets for this scenario in time. I am still learning a lot right now and I haven’t gotten to developing this aspect of my methodology.

If the short scenario occurs, I think we will bypass the last support level around $14 — mostly due to many on TV stating that they are opening short positions with targets lower than $14. Finding the next support around $11.50 seems reasonable to me. BTC’s current legs are lasting longer than EOS, but it could make a sharp move at any time and destroy all non-BTC analysis on TV. If BTC crashes to the 6k area, EOS may be headed back to the $6-8 range, which is the consolidation area below my current short trade. See the related idea below for my current BTC trade setup.

Cheers,
AetherMass

— Resulting potential trades —

Long at $20.2661
Stop (sell) at $19.5273 with loss of 3.65%
Profit (sell) at $23.2341 with gain of 14.65%
Risk reward ratio of 4.02

Short at $15.9425
Stop (buy) at $16.6541 with loss of 4.46%
Profit at (buy) $11.3563 with gain of 28.77%
Risk reward ratio of 6.44

— TRACK RECORD on Trading View as of this post —

All crypto success: 3/4 or 75.00%
All crypto additive, raw percentage gain/loss: 22.01%
All crypto cumulative gain/loss with commissions: 21.34%
EOS/USD success: 0/0 or first attempt pending
EOS/USD additive, raw percentage gain/loss: 0.00%
Other trades pending at time of post: 1
Cancelled trades not included above: 1

註釋

— Info About My Trading Methodology —

My analysis is primarily based on past volume, support, and resistance. I only use rectangles at this time, which makes for simple charts. My current style requires being in an established consolidation period and breaking from that consolidation in either direction. I do not care which direction the price breaks and I setup trades for both opportunities.

I do not enter into trades until support or resistance is firmly broken. The resulting trades are rather conservation and do not capture as much of the movement as other traders that attempt to predict direction. However, due to not attempting to predict direction, I think I will have a greater success rate even if the percentage gains are lower — fewer trades, fewer losses, potentially higher risk-reward ratio.

This makes for a fairly conservative trading methodology that works best on cryptocurrencies due to their sprinting/gapping behavior when crossing resistance or support. I attempt to estimate the next resistance or support to be encountered after a breakout and use that as a target for exiting trades.

Area color legend:
- Red = resistance
- Green = support
- Yellow = volume voids or price gaps
- Blue = consolidation
- Purple = past price movements and related projections that use them

Colored areas above and below the current consolidation indicate past behaviors at those price levels. Support and resistance may be wrapped into consolidation areas in this part of the chart.

— Current Research —

I am a computer scientist and researcher with some expertise in machine learning, big data analysis, and statistics. I am professionalizing my trading ability at this time.

1) I am starting work on a methodology to enter and exit trades based on trade volume past a specified price level. The goal of this methodology is to prevent premature exits when stop losses are triggered by outlier price movements (candle wicks) or temporary price spikes — and to prevent premature profit taking by extending a trade depending on trade volume.

2) I intend to automate execution of my trading methodology. This will require real-time analysis for entries and exits based on the above trade volume analytic. At first, I intend to manually perform analysis with my above described methodology and automate the execution of the trades. Later, I will explore improvements to this or other methodology with machine learning (i.e. chart analysis to continually detect consolidation periods and specify trades).

交易進行

Long scenario is active. I am long myself and my STOP-LIMIT order executed at $20.2661 entered at $20.2700. If EOS makes it past $22.00, I will probably move my stop to $20.38 or higher for a free trade.

交易進行

Looks like this leg might be running out of steam. Possibly slower growth ahead -- unless BTC makes a large move up. I sold off half of my position at ~$27 to take some profits and moved my stop to $20.92 for the other half.

I considered $23.00 as a resistance level, but I thought the price would overshoot it and come back down. EOS only made it to $23.02 so far. Perhaps, that was a bit greedy.. oops. Still learning.

At this time, I think EOS will push higher than $23.23 in the next few days but it may not be today. If I have time, I will make another chart tonight on EOS, IOTA, XRP, or another crypto depending on what looks good at the time.

註釋

And my $20.92 stop just triggered. We'll see how long it takes for EOS to recover or fail on this trade.

註釋

Typo:

"I sold off half of my position at ~$27"

should be

"I sold off half of my position at ~$22"

交易結束：達到停損點

BTC dipped and EOS followed. The below 5m chart shows the entered long trade (candle sticks) compared to BTC (red line). As BTC flattened out at the bottom of the dip, the stop was triggered.

Lessons: be a little less greedy with profit price levels and respect mental barriers like round dollar amounts ($23.00 in this case).

註釋

— TRACK RECORD on Trading View as of this post —

All crypto success: 3/5 or 60.00%
All crypto additive, raw percentage gain/loss: 18.36%
All crypto cumulative gain/loss with commissions: 16.44%
EOS/USD success: 0/1 or 0.00%
EOS/USD additive, raw percentage gain/loss: -3.65%
Other trades pending at time of post: 1
Cancelled trades not included above: 1