6/21: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan

Recap

Last week's rally saw a timely exit of my remaining runner long from 4405, concluding a 90+ point long. This week began with highly complex, tactical action, and we got a rare short trigger on the fail of 4450, which played out nicely for a good 30+ points.

The Markets Overnight

🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit
🛢 Crude Oil: Up slightly
💵 Dollar: Up a bit
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Up strongly

World Headline

UK inflation data prints much hotter than expected raising expectations the Bank of England will continue to raise rates.

Key Structures

4430: The most recent breakout level from Thursday

4413: A stubborn support all last week

4272-80: The core breakout level from June 1st/2nd

Large white rising channel structure from the March low

Large red channel structure connecting the October low with the March low

Support Levels

4433 (major), 4423, 4413 (major), 4402, 4385 (major), 4374 (major), 4358, 4340 (major), 4329 (major), 4314-17, 4300, 4282, 4265-70 (major), 4257, 4247, 4230 (major)

Resistance Levels

4444, 4455-60 (major), 4468, 4482-85 (major), 4498-4500, 4510 (major), 4518, 4528, 4535-40 (major), 4551, 4565-70 (major), 4584, 4595-4600 (major), 4624 (major)

Trading Plan

Bull Case: Reclaim 4413 — must hold 4402. Range bound between 4413 - 4430.

Bear Case: Watch for a false breakdown of 4404 — on strong conviction/followthrough, it's 4385, 4374.

Wrap Up

ES is likely in for some tactical range building now, but as long as 4430 holds, it is set up to test 4455-60, then 4480s, where another dip is likely before breakout. If we sell today, 4413 must hold, or shorts trigger.

Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.