ES/SPY Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (Jul24-28)

由WadeYendall提供

已更新

SUMMARY

ES finished the week with a gain of 0.63 % after trading in a range of 75 pts.
ES closed back below the 1.13 Fib X
First support now 9 ema
First resistance remains the 1.13 Fib extension
Sector rotation last week out of the aggressive XLK, XLY, XLC into more defensive XLE, XLF, XLU,XLV & XLP
FOMC rate decision on Wed and PCE on Friday
Huge week for earnings including reports from GOOGL, AMZN, META, MSFT, V, & BA.
Long term bias remains bullish but deeper pull back to the 21 ema or lower is likey to start the week.
Market needs rotation back into small caps to push to ATHs.

ECONOMIC EVENTS

MON US S&P Manufacturing PMI (Flash)
TUES US CB Consumer Confindence
WED US New Home Sales, EIA Crude, BOC Mtg Minutes & FOMC Rate Decision
THUR US Initial Jobless Claims, US GDP (Advance), US Durable Goods, US PCE(Advance)
FRI US PCE, US Consumer Spending, US PCE Prices, CAN GDP & US Personal Income

EARNINGS

MON CDNS, CLF, DPZ, NXPI
TUES BIIB, DOW,GE, GLW, GM, GOOGL, MSFT, NUE, PCAR,PHM, QGEN, RTX, SNAP, TDOC,
TXN, UBS, V, VZ, WM
WED ADP, ALGN, BA, DB, DGX, EBAY, HLT, MAT, LRCX, META, NOW, OC, ODFL, OTIS, STX, T,
TER, UNP, URI
THUR ABBV,AMZN,BMY,BUD,CROX,CVE, DLR, EIX, ENPH, F,
FSLR,HON,HSY,HTZ,INTC,MA,LUV,MCD,ROKU, SKX
FRI AZN, CVX, PG,WPC, XOM

BULLISH NOTES

ES above the Aug 16th high
EMAs remain stacked.
Price is now only 7.32% from ATH
Potential earnings momentum this week from many key reports
Potential positive reaction to FOMC rate decison and/ or PCE data.
Buy the dip is back in favour.
Market breath has improved.
ES is firmly in the long term bull zone. Above high time frame 618 Fib RT.

BEARISH NOTES

Price rejected at 1.13 Fib extension resistance
9/21 emas may need to be retested.
Pin bar weekly close.
AAPL touched 200 & TSLA touched 300 already.
Potential negative reaction key earnings reports
Potential negative reaction to FOMC rate decision and PCE data
The Dec 13th high breakout point has not been re-tested yet.
Price is stretched for the weekly emas and 200 sma
Potential shock event (War, banks, rate hikes)

評論

ES_F Holding the daily 9 ema so far. More bullish above the 1.13 Fib X. Less bullish below the 9 ema. Price breaks below the 9 ema look for a move to the 21 ema then pot the Aug 16th high. Upside target on a break higher would be the 4700 zone.
FYI that I will be away this week and not trading so will not be updating charts as usual. Good luck during this volatile week.