Recap
In recent weeks, I've been discussing the crucial level in ES: 4493-87. This level has been a battleground since early June. Significant highs were set there in June and early July, which then broke on July 12th to trigger the July melt-up. It then failed in August, triggering the 130 point late August melt-down, before reclaiming late month. Yesterday, it lost yet again, and ES immediately went into a one directional, relentless sell-off.
Market Outlook: Bearish
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a lot
🛢 Crude Oil: Down a bit
💵 Dollar: Up a bit
🧐 Yields: Up slightly
🔮 Crypto: Down
World News
China’s iPhone ban from government offices to expand to state owned companies weighing on tech.
Key Structures
These are some big picture structures that I am watching now:
- 4493-87: This level has been a critical pivot since June for several reasons.
- 4448-54: This was an important level in August.
- The 4409-13 level: This has been key all August and is also the white trendline connecting the Dec 2022, Feb 2023 highs, and June 2023 low.
Support Levels
Supports are: 4466, 4460 (major), 4454-4448 (major), 4440 (major), 4429, 4423, 4414-10 (major), 4402, 4389 (major), 4382, 4376 (major), 4364, 4357, 4344-48 (major), 4338, 4323-27 (major), 4317, 4311, 4295 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistances are: 4473, 4485, 4493-87 (major), 4502, 4509, 4516 (major), 4523, 4531 (major), 4537-41 (major), 4551, 4560, 4570-75 (major), 4584, 4592 (major), 4597 (major).
Trading Plan
For the bull case, the relief bounce case depends on 4448-54 continuing to hold. If ES returns to the level after any dip, its a warning its about to rip through.
For the bear case, bears have the ball for now and until proven otherwise. There are many spots to short weakness here, but one area I do like is on the fail of 4440.
Wrap Up
We broke down yesterday. In terms of direct downside, it begins on the fail of 4440 today. With rollover coming up, expect complex trading and I’ll just be looking to take my level to level piece and get out.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
In recent weeks, I've been discussing the crucial level in ES: 4493-87. This level has been a battleground since early June. Significant highs were set there in June and early July, which then broke on July 12th to trigger the July melt-up. It then failed in August, triggering the 130 point late August melt-down, before reclaiming late month. Yesterday, it lost yet again, and ES immediately went into a one directional, relentless sell-off.
Market Outlook: Bearish
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a lot
🛢 Crude Oil: Down a bit
💵 Dollar: Up a bit
🧐 Yields: Up slightly
🔮 Crypto: Down
World News
China’s iPhone ban from government offices to expand to state owned companies weighing on tech.
Key Structures
These are some big picture structures that I am watching now:
- 4493-87: This level has been a critical pivot since June for several reasons.
- 4448-54: This was an important level in August.
- The 4409-13 level: This has been key all August and is also the white trendline connecting the Dec 2022, Feb 2023 highs, and June 2023 low.
Support Levels
Supports are: 4466, 4460 (major), 4454-4448 (major), 4440 (major), 4429, 4423, 4414-10 (major), 4402, 4389 (major), 4382, 4376 (major), 4364, 4357, 4344-48 (major), 4338, 4323-27 (major), 4317, 4311, 4295 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistances are: 4473, 4485, 4493-87 (major), 4502, 4509, 4516 (major), 4523, 4531 (major), 4537-41 (major), 4551, 4560, 4570-75 (major), 4584, 4592 (major), 4597 (major).
Trading Plan
For the bull case, the relief bounce case depends on 4448-54 continuing to hold. If ES returns to the level after any dip, its a warning its about to rip through.
For the bear case, bears have the ball for now and until proven otherwise. There are many spots to short weakness here, but one area I do like is on the fail of 4440.
Wrap Up
We broke down yesterday. In terms of direct downside, it begins on the fail of 4440 today. With rollover coming up, expect complex trading and I’ll just be looking to take my level to level piece and get out.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
