Are we rushing into the possible next Big Short?

2023年10月22日

Is S&P 500 about to “CRASH”?
Are we rushing into the possible next Big Short?

So the S&P 500 futures contracts are depreciating in value, yes. Yet we foresaw this series of events. Has it been a rapid decline?
No.
The Price Action and structure continues sound.
There is no sign yet of panic or rapid selling signaling the Risk Off scenario all are predicting.

Do I expect further downside? Yes

I will go into my reasoning

1. DXY following a Bullish structure. Currently consolidating in a Bullish Flag pattern that could give us a break out of this pattern with a Higher High soon.
1. With a Bullish Dollar we can expect Bearish Equities.

Lets break ES pice action from top down.

- Monthly
- ES offered a Lower Low from June 23 Lows. But I am looking at the Monthly with caution since the month of October is not over yet.



- Weekly
- ES made its third down leg and yet it was unable to create a Lower Low in comparison to the week of October 2nd 23.
- The down closed weekly candle of last week looks strong enough to take out this low on momentum alone.
- So it is possible we will see 4235.5 before any other move.
-


- Daily
- On the Daily we see the last 4 Bearish days in a row, it can be assumed that the Bearish momentum along could carry price further down to establish a new Lower Low on this Bearish trend which will be at 4235.50
- I also like the potential of 4218.75



In conclusion. I do expect to see further downside but I would like to remind all that this will be the last week of October and to top that we are getting very close to establishing a new Lower Low on this Trend.

What does that mean?

Well we have had and extended leg down on this trend throughout the month of October. I would expect a retracement after a new Low is stablished with a subsequent bounce to settle a possible Lower High on this trend.
To accompany this thought it is the end of the Month and expecting a bit of retracemnt from the Monthly direction is healthy.

If you look at the Daily chart you will notice a gap between Thursday Oct 19,23
And Friday oct 20, 23. I am expecting price to target this Gap once the lows are stablished.

Still always follow price it will never steer you wrong.

2023年10月26日

註釋