Masterful Bear Trap

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Hindsight is always 20/20

We have clear 5 pivots down

PA since the last low has been beautiful

Bears will now see two opportunities

They will short any perceived rejection of the downtrend line which is a little higher

They will also short any perceived rejection of a higher high

Hence those moves are likely to be volatile and eventually rocket fuel for up

I don’t really see any more big pullbacks for the foreseeable

We should hit the downtrend line in early December

There will be a perceived rejection which should rapidly fail

Then all bulls’ energies will be placed into shorting a perceived rejection of a higher high ‘double top’

The higher high should be made with a nice pop in Q1

After that I think it will just range around 4500 for most of Q1 despite a plethora of bad economic news

The narrative up there will be too risky to buy and waiting for a double top

That double top may or may not come

Whilst the index is steadily marching higher and giving bears intermittent hope, big gains are likely in distressed stocks and crypto

GRI 2022

註釋

This was the move on Dow around the downtrend so something similar is possible/ pop to 4350 or so then retest median