I believe an incredible amount of volatility is preparing to enter the market akin to 1929 and 1987. These beliefs are my own and not to be interpreted as financial advice. I see a significant risk of inflation looking forward.
My updated chart shows the market entering an area rife with resistance. I believe a correction is in order to either the black or red support line in May. Afterwards, I see a final push till August. I am of the belief that the weekly RSI resistance will hold. There is very little structure on this chart which creates immense downside risk.
Exhibit A: squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix The incredible swings in GEX have not historically been witnessed since the inception of the indicator. An incredible amount of mounting pressure is building in the options market.
Exhibit B: currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php Many choose to discount the buffett indicator as outdated. I believe this to be a critical mistake. While times have changed and the indicator may be somewhat miscalculated, I personally find it to still be an excellent quick look indicator view at the extremes. We are well beyond the extremes.
Exhibit C: finra.org/investors/learn-to-invest/advanced-investing/margin-statistics and advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/04/19/margin-debt-and-the-market-up-another-1-1-in-march-continues-record-trend Margin debt has been sky rocketing and investors are extremely over-leveraged. More so then the capital they have to put up as collateral... This is a powder keg situation simply waiting for a spark. This creates a "panic" setup, where only a small correction can lead to a massive waterfall as margin calls occur and over-leveraged investors get wiped out. Michael burry has cited this data as well and discussed how a market crash is on the horizon. I don't believe in trusting others opinions on the market but when Dr. Burry shares his opinion, I do my homework.
Exhibit D: isabelnet.com/median-sp-500-stock-short-interest-as-of-market-capitalization/ Bears have been decimated and the market is in a state of euphoria. Everyone believes the "good times wont end" and that the market cant go down. Every man, woman, and child with an internet connection has a fresh hot take on the next big stock to pick. (shoeshine boy much?)
Exhibit E: The inverted yield curve has been the best indicator for a recession since its inception. I have linked the URL to a traders idea who mapped it out extremely well with excellent points in the "related ideas" section.
Full Disclosure, I am positioned in UVXY.
Trade smart and be safe.
S+S
TTT
My updated chart shows the market entering an area rife with resistance. I believe a correction is in order to either the black or red support line in May. Afterwards, I see a final push till August. I am of the belief that the weekly RSI resistance will hold. There is very little structure on this chart which creates immense downside risk.
Exhibit A: squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix The incredible swings in GEX have not historically been witnessed since the inception of the indicator. An incredible amount of mounting pressure is building in the options market.
Exhibit B: currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php Many choose to discount the buffett indicator as outdated. I believe this to be a critical mistake. While times have changed and the indicator may be somewhat miscalculated, I personally find it to still be an excellent quick look indicator view at the extremes. We are well beyond the extremes.
Exhibit C: finra.org/investors/learn-to-invest/advanced-investing/margin-statistics and advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/04/19/margin-debt-and-the-market-up-another-1-1-in-march-continues-record-trend Margin debt has been sky rocketing and investors are extremely over-leveraged. More so then the capital they have to put up as collateral... This is a powder keg situation simply waiting for a spark. This creates a "panic" setup, where only a small correction can lead to a massive waterfall as margin calls occur and over-leveraged investors get wiped out. Michael burry has cited this data as well and discussed how a market crash is on the horizon. I don't believe in trusting others opinions on the market but when Dr. Burry shares his opinion, I do my homework.
Exhibit D: isabelnet.com/median-sp-500-stock-short-interest-as-of-market-capitalization/ Bears have been decimated and the market is in a state of euphoria. Everyone believes the "good times wont end" and that the market cant go down. Every man, woman, and child with an internet connection has a fresh hot take on the next big stock to pick. (shoeshine boy much?)
Exhibit E: The inverted yield curve has been the best indicator for a recession since its inception. I have linked the URL to a traders idea who mapped it out extremely well with excellent points in the "related ideas" section.
Full Disclosure, I am positioned in UVXY.
Trade smart and be safe.
S+S
TTT
註釋
Interesting RSI Bullish divergence being witnessed on the short term S&P 500 volatility futures. This is what UVXY is based onIt has worked for the major crashes since 2018 and is forecasting we may be fast approaching the next top.
imgur.com/Pz7G0Y0
註釋
everything still going according to the chart.....註釋
This may take till September or October. Expect a last push by bulls to possibly 4650 that provides optimal short entry.
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