New Month, Same Playbook?

9月3日

E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)



S&P, last week’s close: Settled 5661.00, up 51.00 on Friday and 8.50 on the week



NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 19,623.00, up 229.75 on Friday and down 167.75 on the week



The page has turned to September, but the choppiness that characterized last week remains. E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are off their best levels, surrendering the late Friday and month-end ramp. There was no major news overnight, and the soft tape pins indices back into last week’s range ahead of a jam-packed week of economic data. Today kicks things off with the closely watched ISM Manufacturing report for August at 9:00 am CT, which comes just after the final S&P Global Manufacturing read at 8:45 am CT. Tomorrow, we look to JOLTs, Thursday brings ADP and Services PMI, and the week is capped off with Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday.



According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 69.4% probability the Fed will cut rates by 100bps before yearend, and whether or not they do, we believe this probability is overzealous ahead of this week’s data dump.



E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures slipped early this morning from the European open onward and are now back midrange. Our Pivot and point of balance at 5632 and 19,519 will be crucial in helping to determine whether this move is a blip and Friday’s ramp continues, or if sellers are in the driver’s seat. In the case of a rebound, the ceiling we defined last week is at 5661.75-5665.25 and 5669-5672.75 in the E-mini S&P and 19,623-19,656 and 19,690-19,705 in the E-mini NQ; a close above here is needed to break range and invite what is likely to be strong buy volume. To the downside, there is significant support in which neither index closed below last week and has buoyed waves of selling at 5593.25-5598 and 19,370-19,415.



Bias: Neutral



Resistance: 5641-5646**, 5652.50-5656.50**, 5661.75-5665.25***, 5669-5672.75***, 5717.25-5721.25****



Pivot: 5632



Support: 5623**, 5608.75-5614.25***, 5602.75-5604.25**, 5593.25-5598****, 5573.50-5582.75***, 5558.50-5561.25**, 5547.50-5551.75***, 5526.75-5536.50***



NQ (September)



Resistance: 19,623-19,656***, 19,690-19,705***, 19,783-19,801***, 19,832-19,867***, 19,904-19,925****



Pivot: 19,519



Support: 19,434-19,451*, 19,370-19,415***, 19,337-19,342**, 19,227, 19,130**, 19,003****


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