ES1! Negative Divergence(s)

2021年4月21日

Multiple time frame negative divergences- same indicator but of different look back/smoothing periods

2021年4月25日

註釋

given the look back periods on the indicator - I try to remove the noise - this is playing out as expected - the short term drop was received as a opportunity to buy the dip. That's exactly what happened but it did not even register in the bottom panel (largest look back period) and it barely moved the medium panel up. Having said that the market is extremely tired - the risk/reward to taking a LONG position to drive prices higher from here, while not impossible, is HIGHLY improbable. Just imagine all the unrealized gains sitting on the table. Even the most optimistic BULL would (SHOULD) be extremely cautions at these levels - not just about going LONG to support higher prices but more importantly to lock in those gains. With the current leverage also being used by both retail and institutional players, patience will NOT be an option. When this decides to drop everyone will be running for the same exit and and MM (market Makers) will pull their bids drying up what liquidity is still left. This will cause violent drops in a short amount of time. 24th year in the game - I've seen this movie before and it doesn't end well - position yourselves accordingly.