Trading Plan for Monday, March 18th, 2024
Trading Plan for Monday, March 18th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Cautious, watching key support levels
Weekly Volatility Risk: High
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5171-73 (major), 5167, 5162, 5152-55 (major), 5147, 5136, 5127 (major), 5115 (major), 5109, 5104, 5092 (major), 5083 (major).
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5181, 5191, 5202 (major), 5207, 5213 (major), 5220-24 (major), 5230, 5236, 5246-51 (major), 5260, 5267 (major), 5280, 5285, 5294 (major), 5300, 5304 (major), 5315, 5320-22 (major), 5332, 5340, 5345, 5354-57 (major)
Trading Strategy:
Pivot Point: The 5171-73 support (white trendline) is crucial. A potential bounce is possible, but exercise caution as significant selling pressure could develop if this level fails.
Long Opportunities: Look for buying opportunities on a bounce or reclaim of 5171-73. The 5152-55 major support is the last line of defense for bulls. Avoid aggressive longs below that level. Look for entries around 5115 or 5127 only if they show strong signs of a rebound.
Short Opportunities (For experienced traders): Watch for short entries on failed breakdowns or bounces off resistance.
Knife Catching Caution: Avoid impulsive buys deep into red candles on violent sell-offs. Treat them as short-term, smaller position trades.
Bull Case
Support Defense: Bulls need to hold the 5171-73 trendline, with ideally no further tests. A bounce here, particularly if it extends to the 5152-55 zone, provides a low-risk entry for a move back towards resistance at 5202/5207.
Building a Base: Overnight basing below 5191 and above the 5170s support suggests potential upside for a move to 5202/5207.
Path to New Highs: A successful defense of the trendline and subsequent move through resistance zones could lead to fresh all-time highs.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5171 could trigger significant selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience here as breakdowns are often tricky and require skilled execution.
Cascading Sell-off: If the 5152-55 major support fails, a deeper, more severe correction is possible.
News: Top Stories for March 18th, 2024
Taiwan's Defense Strategy: Taiwan weighs investing in smaller, cheaper weaponry to counter potential invasion threats from China.
Goldman Sachs Departure: The exit of a senior executive at Goldman Sachs signals potential internal shifts within the company.
Middle East Conflict: Israel's raid on a hospital in Gaza risks escalating tensions in the region.
Retail Challenges: Joann's bankruptcy highlights the ongoing difficulties faced by traditional retailers in the current consumer landscape.
European Defense Stocks: The value of European defense stocks is fluctuating based on political rhetoric and policy shifts.
FedEx-Amazon Partnership: Possible collaboration under discussion could reshape logistics and e-commerce dynamics.
Fed Policy Outlook: The Federal Reserve's latest report highlights potential vulnerabilities due to leverage and high stock valuations. No rate cuts are expected until the Fed is confident inflation is under control.
Bank Regulation Debate: A year after financial instability, regulators prepare new rules while facing industry criticism.
Labor Market Update: Continued strength in the US job market puts factors into play the Fed will consider in its interest rate decisions.
Inflation and Consumer Spending: The paradox of resilient consumer spending despite high inflation is a key focus of economists and policymakers.
Additional Factors: Keep an eye on Nvidia's GTC Conference, updates on Indian markets, scrutiny of Adani Group, and shifts in startup financing trends.
Remember: Prioritize capital preservation during this time of uncertainty. Be prepared for potential volatility and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
Market Sentiment: Cautious, watching key support levels
Weekly Volatility Risk: High
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5171-73 (major), 5167, 5162, 5152-55 (major), 5147, 5136, 5127 (major), 5115 (major), 5109, 5104, 5092 (major), 5083 (major).
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5181, 5191, 5202 (major), 5207, 5213 (major), 5220-24 (major), 5230, 5236, 5246-51 (major), 5260, 5267 (major), 5280, 5285, 5294 (major), 5300, 5304 (major), 5315, 5320-22 (major), 5332, 5340, 5345, 5354-57 (major)
Trading Strategy:
Pivot Point: The 5171-73 support (white trendline) is crucial. A potential bounce is possible, but exercise caution as significant selling pressure could develop if this level fails.
Long Opportunities: Look for buying opportunities on a bounce or reclaim of 5171-73. The 5152-55 major support is the last line of defense for bulls. Avoid aggressive longs below that level. Look for entries around 5115 or 5127 only if they show strong signs of a rebound.
Short Opportunities (For experienced traders): Watch for short entries on failed breakdowns or bounces off resistance.
Knife Catching Caution: Avoid impulsive buys deep into red candles on violent sell-offs. Treat them as short-term, smaller position trades.
Bull Case
Support Defense: Bulls need to hold the 5171-73 trendline, with ideally no further tests. A bounce here, particularly if it extends to the 5152-55 zone, provides a low-risk entry for a move back towards resistance at 5202/5207.
Building a Base: Overnight basing below 5191 and above the 5170s support suggests potential upside for a move to 5202/5207.
Path to New Highs: A successful defense of the trendline and subsequent move through resistance zones could lead to fresh all-time highs.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5171 could trigger significant selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience here as breakdowns are often tricky and require skilled execution.
Cascading Sell-off: If the 5152-55 major support fails, a deeper, more severe correction is possible.
News: Top Stories for March 18th, 2024
Taiwan's Defense Strategy: Taiwan weighs investing in smaller, cheaper weaponry to counter potential invasion threats from China.
Goldman Sachs Departure: The exit of a senior executive at Goldman Sachs signals potential internal shifts within the company.
Middle East Conflict: Israel's raid on a hospital in Gaza risks escalating tensions in the region.
Retail Challenges: Joann's bankruptcy highlights the ongoing difficulties faced by traditional retailers in the current consumer landscape.
European Defense Stocks: The value of European defense stocks is fluctuating based on political rhetoric and policy shifts.
FedEx-Amazon Partnership: Possible collaboration under discussion could reshape logistics and e-commerce dynamics.
Fed Policy Outlook: The Federal Reserve's latest report highlights potential vulnerabilities due to leverage and high stock valuations. No rate cuts are expected until the Fed is confident inflation is under control.
Bank Regulation Debate: A year after financial instability, regulators prepare new rules while facing industry criticism.
Labor Market Update: Continued strength in the US job market puts factors into play the Fed will consider in its interest rate decisions.
Inflation and Consumer Spending: The paradox of resilient consumer spending despite high inflation is a key focus of economists and policymakers.
Additional Factors: Keep an eye on Nvidia's GTC Conference, updates on Indian markets, scrutiny of Adani Group, and shifts in startup financing trends.
Remember: Prioritize capital preservation during this time of uncertainty. Be prepared for potential volatility and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
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