hope for a better future for dapps with parity

2016年8月5日

noob warning - I'm a noob.

consolidation, pump, retrace, consolidation, pump, retrace, consistent pattern of all time highs would be confirmed with a 3rd all time high in a row, and likely give enough confidence in etc to break trend and go even higher. at the moment going for 0.007* but depending on momentum might go further. I'll consider opening eth short in 20 hours.

eth failed to break top even with finex uncertainty distracting people from etc. eth has been stuck in downtrend for a week. support trend is stable, can have very tight margins on longs and eth shorts. set alerts to watch etc price, possible someone might try to break it down before pump artificially.

overview opinion:

etc now pretty secure with eth devs working on important updates that work for both, and etc having a large dedicated team now thanks to original eth co-founder's efforts taking over. bert influence over etf market is essential confidence boost and possibly very good timing for his hedge. eth can't break habit of blaming decline on conspiracy theories and not decision making that led to so much doubt.

1. polls used to evaluate consensus were very small fraction of eth community and guilty of every single inaccuracy for opinion poll listed on wiki en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_poll . This greatly reduces confidence in eth leadership decision making. Profit seekers were more motivated than people protecting trust in ledger integrity, carbon poll favored large bag holders with significant stake in dao, miner poll was also very underrepresented and hard to trust due to ease of hash rent. the eth foundation bias towards bailout was too strong of wording bias to have confidence for fork decline. many eth holders can't follow eth news closely and were not expecting ledger integrity to be compromised until news broke.

2. miner consensus is poor indicator of consensus. one chain typically only wins because only one will have sale value to miners. once etc had value, for-profit miners simply follow profit with some time delay for switches.

2. immutability of ledger is at foundation what gives decentralized ledger value. when ledger is open to subjective bias of only a few percent very few other divides could be as strong as the d

3. eth needs to decide whether it's a service or money, as services have to compete with other similar services, and money doesn't as network effect is more important.


eth wasted too much time on third party hack. competition such as krypton, shift, etc gaining lots of traction, and a very unified community sentiment against eth move suggest lack of support. highly doubtful a technical fork could've unified so many people against a single entity. it's not a good sign when editing a ledger, is forever associated with eth. after a humbling parity is reached, hopefully the devs can come together and work on progress instead of fighting. every alternative dapp team has expressed disapproval in eth move.

as a small player, have to follow the market and not fight it, a week of consistent trend, practically entire lifetime of etc, is too strong of signal.

I wish everyone good luck, please be responsible with your money, and stay safe.

2016年8月5日

註釋

I expect a retrace once etc hits the top of resistance trendline, but the question is would the retrace be to a new support trendline or old one? 3 perfect all time highs in a row is signal for steady growth and boost in confidence. It's very likely it might not need another cycle to get to parity, but go there after only partial retrace. if it goes back to original support trend, I would probably expect a last 4th cycle to get to parity, but I have to think that confidence is too high then.

As I observed it, eth is currently completely reactionary to etc moves, and doesn't provide much other information.