(*EDIT* The purple band is a bit fiddly to get right. PLEASE - adjust the scale on the right-hand side until the ALL THREE of the "3-4" lines are across it. THANK YOU!**)
ETH travels a channel over time from relative weakness to strength and back again against BTC.
On a log scale you can see the market cycle beginning a third very predictable ramp right now.
My predictions for where the 3-4 points are placed is based on the purple band that goes through this resistance phase in the last two cycles.
My prediction is top of the channel by June just under .5 BTC per ETH - both the historical significance of this resistance level and the significant numerical strength of exactly 1/2 the value of BTC will likely make this the top.
And now? Thoughts on how high we go here? I feel like BTC will take off again pretty soon at which point ethbtc will go into the toilet to 0.03-0.04 again before recovering again. This pump we have here feels like an exit pump for folks to unload into BTC around 0.07 or so.
tadingmania1234
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tadingmania1234
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@tadingmania1234, Minimum .3 btc is possible for 1 eth and also alts are better perform then bitcoin now.
I don't thing bitcoin gives us 10x or 20x in just one year because it's hard to buy those price but we buy alts from bitcoin but now many exchanges are starting trading alts coin with ether,that's mean we also buy alts with ether and one of the very possible reason that ether goes higher and higher in bitcoin and alt coin pairs and also ether is a 3rd generation blockchain,use case is really high.but again ether will slows down in profit after a huge gain and then alts coin will outperform ether.
playadoc
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@tadingmania1234, everything has its time... may 2018 be the Year of ETH (or at least the first half) - with NEO then TRX to follow!? ;)
RexItUp
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I agree the TA looks good and in line with what others are seeing, but man, for this to be the case lets imagine the price situation that'd have to happen:
(2) BTC and Eth both recover to their ATH from today's dip. BTC: 20k, Eth:1400. That'd explain the EthBtc dip to 0.07 to get to (2) in your diagram
(3) Eth continues up from 1400 to 2000 from there, while BTC falll from 20k to 10k. That would put us at 0.2 for (3) in your diagram
(4) Eth drops 40% back to 1200 or so while BTC hangs around 10-12k. This gets us down to (4) or 0.1-0.12
(5) Eth rockets up from 1200 to 4000-5000 while BTC keeps holding around 10-12k. During this time the EthBros are rejoicing while the BTC folks go nuts with sadness. Once this figure completes, the Eth Whales buy back into BTC bigtime for the second half of the year when BTC pumps to 70k+.
That's the most plausible scenario I can see. It's really hard to imagine BTC holding around 10-12k for 4 months like this scenario would require. Maybe? Also, Eth to 4-5k seems insane. Maybe not?
Thoughts?
RexItUp
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More likely for the last two steps:
(4) Eth hangs around 2k while BTC moves up to 16k, giving us the retrace to 0.12
(5) BTC falls to 10-12k while Eth moons to 4-5k. BTC takes off for 70k from there.
playadoc
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@RexItUp, thank you for the comment and engaging with me - I love a thoughtful discussion!!
You make such a valid point, that I've considered as well over and over - how can ETH possibly be worth .5 BTC?! What scenarios could make this happen?!?
I'm envisioning a 15k ETH and a 30k BTC (possibly after a couple of runs and retracement)... and really I just don't know how it can happen!
This could very well be "the year of ETH" with so many apps coming to market and Microsoft pushing BaaS (Blockchain as a Service) on ETH... the recognition of ETH as a "Real" blockchain network (consequently being perceived as having much more real-world "worth" than BTC) could account for this sort of growth/valuation. ?
RexItUp
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@playadoc, Thanks for the response! Good point about 30k. It appears that spikes in Eth/BTC tend to happen when BTC is peaking or retracing. So if BTC is in a scenario where it hits 30k that'd probably at (4) in your diagram. Assuming that, lets make a scenario:
(2) BTC -> 20k, Eth -> 1400 (0.07)
(3) BTC -> 16k, Eth -> 3200 (0.2)
(4) BTC -> 30k, Eth -> 3600 (0.12)
(5) BTC -> 20k, Eth -> 10k (0.5)
I don't like the second move here. Feels kinda fake/manufactured. Still, this would be a scenario whre Eth sees parabolic growth while BTC grows as well.
RexItUp
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@RexItUp, I do think that if 0.5 is reached, it will happen because BTC experiences a hard, temporary correction vs Eth magically 5x-ing.
RexItUp
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@RexItUp, Also worth considering that if the market breaks down far lower than expected, with Eth falling to $450 or $600, all of this could still happen much more reasonably.