ETH EUR H1 - Surprise!

已更新

ETH came back in its previous bearish channel after this surprising short squeeze; but the trend seems to follow back the fractal: this pull back make me strongly believe ETH will dump until it bounces on its main daily channel (black lines).
So, why such a dump until this level? Look closer at the BTC/USD chart: BTC maitains its level since 3 days as ETH has formed a H&S :

The reason for this is found in the ETH/BTC chart :

Since 4 days, ETH/BTC is bleeding out and that's why ETH moves are so bearish.

We know that ETH and BTC are linked, so the question is what will happen when things will go back to normal?
2 possible scenarios:
1st: ETH will pump, initiating a BTC pump
2nd: BTC will dump, ETH will also go bearish but slower and gaining in BTC at the same time, and after bouncing on their daily bullish main channel, they'll start the bull run that everyone is waiting for.

2nd scenario seems the most possible to me, as I'm expecting now a long squeeze after the short one ;-)

By the way, there are many lines on the chart, the purple one are describing the way I think ETH will take :-)

註釋

Little bounce of ETH/BTC:

At the same time, BTC is showing signs of weakness:

註釋

Incoming retest of 0.786 FIB; possible next stop 364€

註釋

For BTC ans ETH, SMAs configuration in hourly seems to go to lead the way for a correction

註釋

For BTC and ETH, SMAs' configuration in hourly seems to lead the way for a correction

註釋

Support @ 391 broken, next stop around 385

註釋

If the support @385 fails, there are two supports @ 377 and 375

註釋

Bounce @385 not very strong, SMA 25 and 100 are crossing, support will fail.
Next stop on the red zone between 377 and 375:

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Actual status:
399€: previous 0.5 and actual 0.382 FIB retracement support
Note that both of the 0.618 are matching
385€: actual main support
371€: previous downtrend channel resistance
366€: previous major support

註釋

Today will be a beat or break day! I'm betting for a break:
ETH/EUR formed a bearish flag and will have to deal with the 406€ and the 0.236 FIB retracement resistance, RSI is getting lower quite fast, and SMAs 8, 25 and 50 are going to cross:

The situation tends to be the same for SMA on ETH/BTC and BTC/USD; so in any case, the reaction will be synchronized and stronger than normal.
BTC formed a bearish pennant: and it's close to the 0.236 FIB retracement support.

ETH/BTC is in the FIB exhaustion zone, so if there's not strong buy reaction, it'll confirm its bearish configuration as it's evolving in a massive rising wedge: